From The Hotline Latest Edition for Tuesday, May 20,2008

OBAMA

We're All Winners (Some Of Us More Than Others)

Tue. May 20, 2008


Barack Obama "heads back to the scene of his first breakthrough triumph" tonight, "hoping to use Iowa as a backdrop to announce that he's gained enough pledged delegates to all but clinch" the Dem WH nod (Thomma, McClatchy, 5/20).

Obama "is poised to reach" that "milestone" with tonight's results from OR and KY, "but he said he would not declare victory" over Hillary Clinton "or suggest" the primary should end until the contests wrap up 6/3.

Obama "issued a directive to his campaign not to overtly declare victory" at tonight's rally in Des Moines. He also told a crowd 5/19 in Billings, MT: "We still have a number of contests, including Montana, before we're able to secure the nomination. Senator Clinton has run a magnificent race, and she is still working hard, as am I, for all of these last primary contests."

But Obama mgr. David Plouffe "was a bit blunter" in a note to supporters 5/19, writing, "A clear majority of elected delegates will send an unmistakeable message -- the people have spoken, and they are ready for change. As we near victory in one contest," Pres. Bush and John McCain "have begun coordinating their attacks" on Obama "in an effort to extend their failed policies for a third term" (Zeleny/Healy, New York Times, 5/20).

Clinton's camp, meanwhile, "played down the significance of the milestone," with Clinton comm. dir. Howard Wolfson writing to supporters, "Premature victory laps and false declarations of victory are unwarranted" (Ohlemacher, AP, 5/20).

Obama "is heavily favored" to win OR, "but he is a serious underdog" in KY (Youngman, The Hill, 5/19). "The expected split offers a snapshot of a divided" party in which Obama "has yet to win over white, working-class voters even as his nomination appears all but certain" (Berman, New York Sun, 5/20).

Newsweek's Fineman: "I think Oregon's significance is that Obama is probably going to do well among all constituencies, including the now famous working-class whites under $50,000" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 5/19).

NBC's Todd: "He might actually carry a county in Kentucky. He didn't even carry a county in West Virginia. I assume he carries Jefferson County there where Louisville is, but maybe he doesn't do that and that I think would be a little bit of an embarrassment" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 5/20).

But Clinton, "mo matter how wide her expected win" in KY, "mathematically cannot catch up" to Obama's delegate lead (Bellantoni, Washington Times, 5/20). At the end of the day 5/19, Obama's camp reported it was 14.5 pledged delegates away from winning a majority (release, 5/19).

Pleased To Meet You

Obama heads to FL 5/21, kicking off a three-day swing with a rally in Tampa (release, 5/20). Obama's camp has also "started moving staff to the state" (Farrington, AP, 5/20). Tampa Tribune's March notes on his first FL visit, Obama "isn't likely to proclaim" himself the presumptive nominee, and he "also isn't ready to announce that he would accept full seating" of the FL and MI delegations (5/19).

The Cowboy Way

Before a crowd of 3.2K in Billings, MT, on 5/19, Obama again linked McCain to the "failed cowboy diplomacy" of Bush. Obama "again used the experience of past presidents to argue that America should not be afraid to negotiate with our enemies," saying, "demanding that a country meet all your conditions before you meet" is "not a strategy -- it is just naive, wishful thinking" (Jones, National Journal/NBC, 5/19).

Obama: "The Soviet Union has thousands of nuclear weapons and Iran does not have a single one. And when the world was on the brink of nuclear holocaust, Kennedy talked to Khrushchev and he got those missiles out of Cuba. Why shouldn't we have the same courage and the competence to talk to our enemies?"

More: "John McCain is right that the greatest threat we face is a terrorist with a nuclear weapon, and that's why when he was busy supporting a war against a country that had no nuclear weapons, I was busy in the Senate working with Republican Dick Lugar to pass legislation to secure loose nuclear weapons and loose nuclear material around the world" (Gavrilovic, CBSNews.com, 5/19).

Obama also "hit McCain hard on his ties to lobbyists," saying "the McCain campaign was being run by lobbyists and that it was being paid for with lobbyist money." Obama: "After nearly three decades in Washington, John McCain can't see or won't acknowledge what's obvious to all of us here today -- that lobbyists aren't just part of the system in Washington, they're part of the problem" (NBC/National Journal, 5/19).

Obama "stressed many of the same issues" before a crowd of 7K in Bozeman later 5/19 (Billings Gazette, 5/20).

Boston Globe's Canellos writes, Obama "may still be proposing policies that strike conservatives as weak and foolish," but it's now "clear that he's doing so in a forceful and politically savvy way. ... Whether Obama is right or not, such demonstrations of backbone serve to validate many of the key assumptions of his campaign" -- "especially that Obama alone can transcend and thrust-and-parry approach to politicking." Obama "is trying to argue for a kind of muscular liberalism," and "in arguing his case for quiet diplomacy, Obama seems to be having his best success when he makes it loudly and strongly" (5/20).

As The Crow Flies

Also in MT 5/19, Obama "made an unprecedented stop" at the Crow Indian reservation. Obama "told several thousand American Indian supporters that he would honor long-ignored treaty obligations and revamp health care and education on reservations" (Brown, AP, 5/20).

Obama also "echoed the theme of unity" expressed by tribal leaders, "drawing on his experience growing up" in HI. Obama: "Sometimes I was looked at as sort of an outsider and so I know what it's like to be on the outside. I know what it's like to not always have been respected or to have been ignored ... Because I have that experience, I want you to know that I will never forget you."

The tribe also "adopted Obama into the Crow nation, making him a member of the whistling water." Obama was given the name "Awe Kooda Bilaxpak Kuuxshish," for "One who helps people throughout the land." Obama "was led onto the stage by his adoptive tribal parents," Hartford and Mary Black Eagle (Jones, NBC/National Journal, 5/19). Obama: "Barack Black Eagle, that is a good name." Obama "then made listeners laugh as he struggled to pronounce the tribal name for Crow people, Apsaalooke" (Shay, Billings Gazette, 5/20).

Obama's camp "has been recruiting its top organizers to lead efforts" in MT and SD, "putting particular emphasis on the often overlooked American Indian population, which has proven to be a key swing vote in recent elections" (Chozick, Wall Street Journal, 5/20).

A Dash Of Daschle

Obama supporter/ex-Senate Maj. Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) appeared on some of the a.m. shows today. Some highlights:

Daschle, on Obama receiving the majority of pledged delegates: "We're not saying today that things are over at all. ... This is an important milestone but it's not the end. We obviously have important states, including my own state of South Dakota, left. ... But we want to begin the process of bringing this party together. ... That doesn't mean we'll do it tomorrow or the next day, but clearly there's a desire to unify" ("Early Show," CBS, 5/20).

More: "I think it's important to say that the pledged delegates are those who have been selected by the states. Barack Obama has won 32 contests, and from states all over the country, and each of those contests selected delegates" ("American Morning," CNN, 5/20).

On Clinton expected to win KY: "She deserves to win some of these states. She and her husband have done a lot of work in Kentucky and West Virginia. ... She's going to win some. Barack has won twice as many contests all over the country and so we feel every bit as good as anybody else should tonight."

On critics saying Obama should have gone to WV and KY, and he should be working on connecting with the voters that he is having trouble with: "I think he's connecting very well and we're going to continue to do that. We're going to see that connection tonight. When you look at that crowd the other day, 75,000, 80,000 people."

MSNBC's Brzezinski: "That was in Oregon."

Daschle: "That was a crowd that looked like America" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 5/20).

Great Scott, More Superdelegates!

• IA Dem Chair Scott Brennan announces his endorsement of Obama today (AP, 5/19).

• Guam Rep. Madeleine Bordallo endorsed Obama 5/20, "saying she believes he is the right candidate to move our nation forward" (release, 5/20).

• KS Dem Chair Larry Gates endorsed Obama 5/19, "citing his proven ability to win in red states and his positive campaign" (release, 5/19).

• AK superdelegates Cindy Spanyers and Blake Johnson also endorsed Obama 5/19, "citing his ability to move the country in a new direction and his understanding" of AK issues (release, 5/19).

• And MI superdelegate Eric Coleman endorsed Obama 5/20 (AP, 5/20).

Meanwhile, Charleston Gazette ed board writes of Sen. Robert Byrd's 5/19 Obama endorsement, "Today, it is glaringly obvious that Byrd and Obama were correct while most Washington leaders were wrong" on the Iraq war. "The wisdom and judgment of the two elevated them above the stampede for combat" (5/20).

The Grass Is Bluer

Michelle Obama campaigned in KY 5/19, saying she's been "proud" of her husband for "staying true to himself" and fighting "very hard to stay above the fray" during the campaign. M. Obama: "The slow drumbeat message of the electorate is: Enough is enough, we need to do this differently." M. Obama appeared at invitation-only events in Louisville, Hopkinsville and at the camp HQ in Lexington (Alessi, Lexington Herald-Leader, 5/20). In Hopkinsville, she met with "a dozen local military wives" (Parrino, Kentucky New Era, 5/20).

You Wouldn't Hit A Girl, Would You?

After Obama said on ABC's "GMA" 5/19 that the TN GOP should "lay off my wife" and stop its "low-class" and "detestable" Internet video that questions her patriotism, TN GOP comm. dir. Bill Hobbs "fired right back," calling Obama's warning to "be careful" about making Michelle an issue "hypocritical," "condescending" and a "little scary." Hobbs: "If Sen. Obama thinks that his wife can go out there and make campaign speeches and yet somehow be immune -- or be off limits -- to criticism for the things she says in campaign speeches on his behalf, then, he's just wrong" (Saul, New York Daily News, 5/19).

Among the reaction to Obama's comments and the TN GOP's ad:

• Karl Rove: "If you don't want your spouse to be an issue in a campaign, then don't have your spouse making issues. You remember Michelle Obama made that extraordinary comment about she was proud of the United States for the first time in her adult life. That's making an issue. ... If you don't want your spouse attacked, then don't have your spouse out there attacking" ("O'Reilly Factor," FNC, 5/19).

• Newt Gingrich: "I think Senator Obama has to decide. If his wife's primary role is to be his wife, then she shouldn't be on the platform in any form except supporting him. But if she's, in fact, his colleague in politics, as Eleanor Roosevelt was and as Hillary Clinton was ... then, in fact, they become vulnerable and open to legitimate critique" ("On the Record," FNC, 5/19).

• CNN's Cafferty: "If Michelle Obama is going to be an issue in the campaign, then at some point, Cindy McCain will become an issue in the campaign, as well. And there are more skeletons in Cindy McCain's closet than there probably are in Michelle Obama's" ("Situation Room," 5/19).

• PA-based radio talk show host Michael Smerconish: "I think just as he needs to nip in the bud some of these patriotism issues, she could do likewise" ("Race for the WH," MSNBC, 5/19).

• FNC's Barnes: "Anytime the candidate has a chance to rush to the defense of his wife, he's ahead. ... It was a stupid ad" ("Special Report," 5/19).

• Time's Halperin, on how Obama reacting to attacks against his wife could hurt him: "Here's why I think it's a mistake for him to do this. What if they don't lay off his wife? What's he going to do? Today he was talking all tough at 'Good American America.' But if this continues, and I suspect it will, is he going to challenge people to a fight? Is he going to punch someone in the nose? I mean, I don't know how he's going to enforce his strong feelings" ("Election Center," CNN, 5/19).

• Radio host Mildred Gaddis: "He picked up a few extra votes defending his wife" ("Lou Dobbs," CNN, 5/19).

• Clinton supporter/Dem strategist Hilary Rosen, asked whether spouses are fair game in the election: "Well, I think spouses that campaign are fair game. Having said that, I think it's pretty stupid strategy, because, essentially, you have taken on sort of the most sympathetic person in a candidate's realm, the wife. ... I think that attacking her is really a dumb strategy on the Republicans' part."

• Rosen, on the ad: "I sort of chalk this up a little bit also to the education of Michelle Obama, that she has to understand, as an official surrogate of the campaign, everything she says matters and will be scrutinized. And, so, she is going to be fair game" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/19).

• Sen. Bob Corker's (R-TN) CoS "said in a statement that the senator's office has called on" the TN GOP to "pull the video" posted last week on YouTube, saying, "we have strongly encouraged the national party and state parties to absolutely refrain from getting involved in negative personal campaigning" (Sher, Chattanooga Times Free Press, 5/20).

• GOP strategist Ed Rollins, asked whether he'd run an ad like this: "I would expect to see more. The reason I wouldn't run an ad like this, it wasn't a very effective ad to begin with. First of all, it was a YouTube ad. It wasn't on paid television. ... The critical thing here, though, is, these are her words. They weren't something made up. It wasn't some personal attack. She said this. And I think a lot of people reacted unfavorably to her saying it. In the course of a campaign, is the spouse open for any kind of criticism? If she says something stupid, it's going to be on television" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/19).

• Obama supporter/Dem strategist Dan Gerstein, asked whether an ad like this can work against its "intended" purpose: "Absolutely. I think it does two things. One is, it reinforces Barack Obama's message, that our political system is broken, when things are so petty and cheap-shotting that you're attacking the candidate's spouse. But I think, more than that, it's exposing the bankruptcy of the Republicans. They are about ready to go into Chapter 11. They have nothing left to say positive. They have no agenda. They have no vision for the country. And all they can do is attack the guy's wife" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/19).

• GOP strategist Leslie Sanchez: "It was a missed opportunity for Republicans, because now you have basically who could be the nominee defending his wife. You don't really want to be in that position, because it makes the Kentucky GOP look like the bully and it misses the whole point. It's petty. It's ridiculous" ("Election Center," CNN, 5/19).

• FNC's Barnes: "I think Republicans have to decide whether attacking her in an ad is good politics, or whether that just allows Barack Obama to say 'Lay off my wife' and act like she is a victim. So, look, the press is going to cover her. ... [But] they don't need an ad. That's over the top. That goes too far, and I think it was a mistake" ("Fox & Friends," 5/20).

• Roll Call's Kondracke: "The ads are counter-productive. They give Obama a chance to develop a sympathy vote, if you like. ... Her values and what kind of a first lady she is going to be are legitimate fodder. But, again, an ad is not helpful to the Republican party. [It] looks like a cheap shot" ("Fox & Friends," FNC, 5/20).

Today In Unwieldy Surrogates

"Prominent local Barack Obama backer"/GA 01 candidate/Air Force vet Bill Gillespie (D) "bashed" McCain's military record during a "nearly half-hour speech" in Savannah, GA, 5/19, calling McCain a "self-promoter." Gillespie said his "heart grieves" for McCain's suffering as a POW, but "after that, he was somewhat of a celebrity and it went to his head." Asked "to cite specific examples," Gillespie said, "I don't have one right now." McCain spokesperson Jeff Sadofsy "portrayed Gillespie's remarks as part of a pattern of attacks by Obama supporters," of "character assassination done through a third party" (Peterson, Savannah Morning News, 5/19).

This One Doesn't Have A Cute Mascot Like "Yucca Mountain Johnny"

Obama "was stumped this weekend when a woman asked him about cleanup at the nation's most contaminated nuclear area," the Hanford site in WA "where scientists helped create the atomic bomb." Obama "admitted that he didn't know much about the problem," but said, "I promise you I'll learn about it by the time I leave here on the ride back to the airport."

RNC spokesperson Paul Lindsay responded, "How can Obama deliver change if he doesn't even understand what needs to be changed?" Obama's camp, meanwhile, said 5/19 "that Obama is committed to cleaning up Hanford and other contaminated nuclear sites" (Daly, AP, 5/19).

Being Controversial, It Takes A Lot Out Of A Person

Rev. Jeremiah Wright "has withdrawn from two appearances" scheduled for next week in Philly. Rev. Martini Shaw of St. Thomas African Episcopal Church said Wright's office "advised him last week" that Wright wanted to reschedule. Shaw: "Dr. Wright has been exhausted by all the media attention and desired some time for refreshment and refueling" (O'Reilly, Philadelphia Inquirer, 5/20).

Dear Friend,

FL House Dem leader Dan Gelber said 5/19 that emails criticizing Obama's support for Israel have as much credibility as the "Nigerian businessman" asking for your bank account info. Gelber wrote: "Friends, is it possible that elements of the Republican Party might be using fear and false innuendo to exploit an issue for which people have passion in an attempt to gain an election day advantage? My goodness, could there be gambling going on in Casablanca?" (Bender, Palm Beach Post blog, 5/19).

Wall Street Journal's Stephens writes, "The fastest way to turn whatever dark suspicions Jews may have of Mr. Obama into a self-fulfilling prophecy is to spurn his attempts at outreach. ... What matters is whether his vision for U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East -- and the broader world view that informs it -- will have ancillary effects favorable to Israel's core interests" (5/20).

Whatever Doesn't Kill You Makes You Stronger, As Long As You're Still In The Race

Over "oatmeal and a cup of blackberry sage tea," Obama strategist David Axelrod talked to Politico's Simon about the campaign. Asked to "pick a campaign moment that says something about Obama," Axelrod brings up the night Obama lost the popular vote in OH and TX. Axelrod: "He is at his best at our worst moments." Obama went into camp HQ "to shake everybody's hand and to try to lift the spirits of the staffers and volunteers." Axelrod: "He told them to keep their chins up, but he also had a legal pad full of the things the campaign did wrong and right. And he always acknowledges his own deficiencies. He said: 'There are many things I could have done better. We can learn from this.' ... He is a stronger and better candidate for having had to struggle."

Axelrod said after the camp lost NH, "the next day, on about three hours of sleep, [Obama] said, 'I think what happened yesterday was right. When you are the new guy, it is not supposed to be easy. It was like Icarus flying too close to the sun. We have to earn this. But it persuaded me this is the right battle'" (5/20).

Do Not Want!

Obama's allies in Congress "do not want" Clinton to be Obama's running mate. "Some are wary of putting Clinton on the ticket because they believe she has run a racially divisive campaign." Obama supporter/Rep. Keith Ellison (D-MN) said John Edwards would be a better choice, because Edwards "hasn't made as many people angry. Some of the things she has said and done and her husband has said and done have disappointed people in a serious way." Obama supporter/Rep. Lacy Clay (D-MO): "I'm not sure the Obama supporters will fall in line and support her. It's evident that she and her husband started down this racial path shortly after" SC and "they continue to harken back to racial divides."

Others, like Obama supporter/Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) would rather Obama choose a "fresh face," like ex-Sen. Sam Nunn (D-GA), mentioned by several Obama backers (Bolton, The Hill, 5/19).

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