From The Hotline Latest Edition for Tuesday, May 20,2008

A Mighty Wind?

Tue. May 20, 2008


OR Dems are fired up. Turnout for today's primary is expected to be the 2nd highest in almost 40 years. But that enthusiasm isn't translating down ballot, where Dems Jeff Merkley and Steve Novick have run a remarkably low-key SEN primary battle. Are they merely victims of a WH contest that has sucked up the oxygen in the state? Or a sign that Sen. Gordon Smith (R) remains a tough target for Dems?

Polls show a tight Dem contest, but the high number of undecideds suggests that neither guy has broken through. Merkley's the establishment candidate, but his lackluster campaign doesn't bode well for a match-up w/the experienced Smith. Novick has run as the outsider, tapping into voters' frustration with "politics as usual." Still, his support of liberal causes (esp. taxes) worry some Dem insiders.

At this point, Smith's doing everything right. He's spent $500K on TV ads that define him as a bi-partisan moderate, while casting his opponents as political hacks. Still, OR is tough terrain. And if the anti-GOP wind is blowing strong enough this Nov., Smith could get pushed out, regardless of which candidate Dems choose today.

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