From The Hotline Latest Edition for Monday, May 19,2008

Field Of Dreams

Mon. May 19, 2008


Instead of celebrating his expected OR win, in, well, OR, Obama plans to spend 5/20 p.m. in IA. And while his campaign likes to point out that he'll have reached the majority of pledged delegate threshold that day, they're quick to stress there will be no "Mission Accomplished" banner. So, what's Obama really trying to, er, accomplish by going there?

IA is one of just two states that flipped from blue in '00 to red in '04, (the other was NM). Realistically, Dems can still capture the WH w/out those 7 EV's - wins in CO and VA, or OH, would do the trick. But symbolically, Obama hopes his focus on IA will send the message that he can broaden the EC map. McCain's doing the same in NH, the only '00 red state that flipped blue in '04.

Given the beating GOPers took in both states in '06, can McCain hope to hold either one this time around? Pollster.com shows Obama's once big lead in IA has narrowed to 4 pts. Meanwhile, the latest UNH poll showed McCain w/a 6-pt lead. While Obama goes to FL next – ostensibly to rally Dems in a state he ignored earlier this year – perhaps his "we're not declaring victory" victory tour should head next to NH.

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