From The Hotline Latest Edition for Tuesday, May 13,2008

CLINTON

According To Your Records, I'm The President

Tue. May 13, 2008


During a long day of campaigning in WV 5/12, Hillary Clinton "put on a determined demeanor," despite her $20M in campaign debt and "superdelegates streaming" Barack Obama's way (Fiore, Los Angeles Times, 5/13).

Clinton began her day in Charleston, then went to Clear Fork before heading to Logan. On 5/12 p.m., she boarded a plane for Fairmont to attend WV Gov. Joe Manchin's election-eve rally. At each stop, Clinton "told her supporters her plans to fix the economy, offer universal health care, fund higher education and end the war in Iraq" (Winn, Charleston Gazette, 5/13).

Clinton, who's "expected to win handily" in WV, said: "I wouldn't be in this race, I wouldn't be going up and down West Virginia...I wouldn't be doing this if I didn't believe I could be the best president for West Virginia and America" (Douglas, McClatchy, 5/13).

With the clock ticking, Clinton "told an enthusiastic crowd" in Logan, WV, 5/12 that today's primary could be a "crucial turning point" in the election, as she continued to play up the state's significance for Dems' chances in the fall.

Clinton: "West Virginia is a real indicator of which way the political winds are going to blow come the November election. This election we've had, this primary contest has been close and exciting -- the closest one anybody can remember. But the goal is to nominate someone who can beat John McCain in November. That's what we've got to do."

As proof of her claim, she repeated the statistic that no Dem has won the WH without WV since 1916. In "emphasizing the role of a state where she's heavily favored, Clinton is sending the message that" Obama is not as sure of a bet in November (Memoli, National Journal/NBC, 5/11).

In a new radio ad, Clinton encourages West Virginians to get out and vote: "We can pick a president. After all, no Democrat has been elected president without winning West Virginia for almost a hundred years" (release, 5/13).

Hubert Humphrey Was "Fired Up" And "Ready To Go," Too

In Clear Fork, WV, Clinton "compared her underdog quest" for the WH 5/12 to John Kennedy's '60 campaign. Clinton "swatted aside suggestions she would drop out before the final ballots are cast in early June," reveling in chants of "Don't quit!" from "enthusiastic and virtually all-white crowds" in WV coal country. Clinton: "It was West Virginia that made it possible for John Kennedy to become president. John Kennedy didn't have the number of delegates he needed when he went to the convention in 1960; he had something equally as important -- he had West Virginia behind him" (Thrush, Newsday, 5/13).

Life On The Outer Margins

At Logan High School, state Senate Maj. Leader Truman Chafin "got the crowd riled up before Clinton took the stage. He urged them to drive Clinton to an even larger victory than predicted by polls, some of which have her beating" Obama in WV by as much as 40%. Chafin said the margin could be "80-20 or 90-10. Let's get the national media's attention" (Winn, Charleston Gazette, 5/13).

A "victory of such proportions would surpass the already optimistic polls here," the most recent of which show Clinton winning 60% of the vote over Obama. It would also surpass the vote in AR, Clinton's best state to date, where she beat Obama, 70-27% on 2/5. But "it is not clear whether even a gigantic win here could reverse her fortunes" (Seelye, "The Caucus," 5/12). More opinions on her margin of victory and what, if anything, it will mean:

• For his part, Obama acknowledged 5/12 that Clinton will win WV today "by a large" margin, saying: "I think [Bill] Clinton said 80 percent, so we'll take him at his word" (Searls, Charleston Gazette, 5/13).

• PA-based radio talk show host Michael Smerconish: "She may cause him some embarrassment tonight if it's truly a 35-point margin that she exercises" ("Early Show," CBS, 5/13).

• Clinton is "expected to trounce Obama" in WV tonight, "after which she'll doubtless bound onto a stage in Charleston to roaring cheers, bobbing signs and a sea of hats. It is sure to look like a victory in every sense, except one: Few people believe that a Clinton victory here would alter the arithmetic that seems to be guiding Obama" to the Dem nomination (Los Angeles Times, 5/13).

• Politico's Vogel writes, a Clinton win by "huge margins" could give HRC's "sputtering campaign one last chance to alter-- or at least mute --the prevailing narrative that Obama's nomination is inevitable" (5/13).

• Chicago Tribune's Oliphant writes, Clinton "should emerge from" the hot water today, "albeit briefly, to bask in what is expected to be a convincing victory" in WV. But "as the superdelegates continue to announce their support for Obama, the relief will be temporary at best" ("The Swamp," 5/12).

• More Oliphant: Her camp "hopes a dramatic win will re-focus public attention" on the Dem contest, even though Obama "and much of the national media seem intent on moving on to the general election" (Chicago Tribune, 5/13).

• FNC's Garrett: "[HRC] advisers say if there's a huge turnout tomorrow and Clinton wins by more than 25, it will send a signal to all the 'know-it-alls inside the beltway' that Clinton is still in this race" ("Special Report," 5/12).

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National Journal's Douglass: "If she wins 65, 68, 70 percent, something like that, she's hoping that will give those very superdelegates pause and stop the flood toward Obama" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/12).

• In an e-mail to supporters last night, camp chair Terry McAuliffe said a big win in WV could help Clinton's popular vote total, which he wrote is "a key part of our plan to win the nomination." McAuliffe: "We need every last vote we can get in West Virginia" (Johnston, Bloomberg, 5/13).

• Clinton comm. dir. Howard Wolfson: "I think superdelegates who have been moving toward Barack Obama in the last week are going to wake up tomorrow and say, 'I'm a little concerned about the fact that our nominee, presumptive nominee can't win West Virginia. I'm a little concerned that he can't win Pennsylvania or Ohio, or Michigan, or Florida'" ("Today," NBC, 5/13).

Cue Happy Ending And Roll The Credits

Forget the calls for her to quit: Clinton "is determined to rack up two big primary victories in the next eight days" -- in WV and KY-- "as she seeks to prove her continued political viability." She "and her chief political counselor, her husband, see the two coming primaries as crucial to strengthening her standing and, if it comes to it, to allowing her to leave the race on a high note," advisers say.

Some of HRC's advisers believe that "sizable victories" in WV and KY might put pressure on Obama "to agree to her demands to seat" MI and FL's delegates, "which would let her claim a victory on a battle she has fought for month." And Clinton is counting on a "big victory to impress undecided superdelegates." Clinton also wants to show strength in KY and WV ---states Dems "have struggled to carry in presidential elections == not to mention, advisers say, pointing up what the Clinton campaign sees as the weakness of the Obama coalition."

But "advisers acknowledged that even if she won those states by wide margins, it was probably too late to change the dynamic of the nominating contest in her favor." Clinton plans to spend tomorrow "meeting with advisers and top fundraisers to discuss the future of the campaign." Aides said they believed she was likely to remain in the race until" the KY primary (Healy, New York Times, 5/13).

Thank You For Smoking

Clinton sent an "apparent video swan song" to supporters yesterday, in which she said: "Now it's on to West Virginia and Kentucky and Oregon, and we'll stay in touch." Clinton: "Thank you for caring so much about our country." The video, "hinted she might wrap up her campaign as early as next week" (Hurt, New York Post, 5/13).

The Ragin' Cajun, Now With Shrugging Powers

In SC 5/12, Clinton supporter James Carville "predicted" that Obama would secure the Dem nod. Speaking to students at Furman Univ, Carville said he was "almost positive" the party would unify "after the primary and that he would write Obama a check if he locks down the nomination" (Alongi, Greenville News, 5/13).

Deeply In Debt

Should she lose or abandon her quest for nomination, Clinton will have to deal with her campaign's more than $20M debt -- "a step that could test her relationship" with Obama and raise new issues in campaign finance law. Clinton owed $10M at the end of March, has made loans to her camp totaling $11.4M "thus far and will more than likely end the primary season significantly in the red." Among her options is transferring that debt to her Senate campaign cmte "and paying it off with contributions to her 2012 re-election effort."

But, for the short term, many Dems "believe the answer lies with Obama and his vast network of contributors." Dem consultant Tad Devine: "That is a normal thing when a candidate finishes a race and loses, the winning candidate would try to help if there's some debt that's been incurred." For their part, Clinton camp "officials say they have not contemplated what she will do with the debt," and Obama's camp strategist David Axelrod said "that discussion is way premature" (Kuhnhenn, AP, 5/13).

Several experienced campaign finance attys argue that Clinton "can have her Senate campaign fund assume all debts owed to others. Then, with permission from her donors, she could transfer into the same account" an estimated $22M "she has raised for the general election campaign. That money could be used to pay down what she owes others, they said, but not" the $11.4M or more she loaned herself (Espo/Sidoti, AP, 5/13).

Money Falls Into Life On The Crime-Ridden Streets

New York Times' McIntire and Luo write, at least 460 Texans, most of them rural Hispanics in South Texas or African-Americans in Houston, received payments from the Clinton camp "to knock on doors, deliver fliers and get voters to the polls," according to a review of FEC records. The records show that Clinton did something similar in OH, giving over $38K to state legislator Eugene Miller, "who says he used it to pay more than 200 people to get out the vote in predominantly black neighborhoods in Cleveland."

The payments, "known in the political vernacular as 'street money,' are a legal but controversial tool" that Clinton "employed at a time when she was desperately seeking a victory after losing 10 consecutive contests" to Obama.

As a "practical matter, the payments are now little more than a footnote to a hotly contested race that seems closer to a conclusion." But t"hey underscore how her strategists, caught unprepared for a drawn-out battle, turned to an old-style method of retail politicking to ensure much-needed victories in the suddenly critical" TX and OH primaries (5/13).

Have You Heard The One About The Caucus System?

In his second of three straight days of "crisscrossing" OR campaigning for HRC, Bill Clinton "said the state's innovative vote-by-mail system is challenging for candidates who are trying to run campaigns in several states at once." Speaking to about 700 people outside the Tillamook Cheese Factory 5/12, "Clinton made it sound like the joke was on the candidates when it comes to mail balloting." "It's hilarious," he said, "explaining that the state figured out a way to hold elections and make it difficult for campaigns to know who has voted" (Hogan, Oregonian, 5/13).

Senator Moynihan Agreed, Via The Paranormal

Clinton "got some free career advice" 5/12 from 3 of NY's "most senior pols, all of whom suggested she might want to reset her sights on the vice presidency." With Obama "running well ahead in the delegate race -- and with some insiders saying Clinton is already plotting her exit-- Sen. Chuck Schumer, ex-NYC Mayor Ed Koch, and Rep. Charlie Rangel said an Obama-Clinton ticket could be the best possible outcome for Dems. Schumer: "At first I thought it wasn't [viable], but I do think it could be. Hillary and Barack have both run very strong and great races, and I think they'd be a strong ticket."

Koch told the Daily News that while he still hopes Clinton "will win the nomination, Obama should pick her as his running mate if he wins -- something he has shown little interest in doing." Koch: "They would be a very powerful ticket." Meanwhile, on CNN 5/12, Rangel said that it would be "absolutely terrific" to have Obama and Clinton on the same ticket (Saul/Saltonstall, New York Daily News, 5/13).

Four Wheeling In Kentucky

Ex-KY Dem chair Jerry Lundergan said a big victory for Clinton in KY's 5/20 primary "would help clear her path for the party's nomination." Here is Lundergan's scenario of how Clinton will win the nomination:

Barack Obama has a 700K lead over Clinton in the number of popular votes won. Clinton will win WV today, Kentucky on 5/20 and Puerto Rico on 6/1, winning by a margin of 450K votes.On 5/31, the DNC's rules panel will vote to restore the delegates stripped from MI and FL "when the states defied party rules and held their primaries earlier than scheduled. Clinton won both, but neither candidate campaigned in either state."

Lundergan: "At that point Sen. Clinton has won the popular vote, Sen. Clinton has won all the big states that you have to win in November -- Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania - she has won the southern swing states like West Virginia, Kentucky and Tennessee. All that shows she can win the electoral votes in November" (Crowley, Cincinnati Enquirer, 5/13).

McAuliffe, giving his predictions: "Big win West Virginia, big win Kentucky, big win Puerto Rico. And I'll shock ya -- I think we're going to throw Montana in the mix, too" ("Morning Joe," MSNBC, 5/13).

The Apology Rope Line

NH GOP chair Fergus Cullen apologized 5/12 to the Clintons "for joking about their assassination in his online party newsletter last week." Cullen: "There is a place for humor in politics, but I can understand why some might find this joke in poor taste. No offense was intended, and I regret if any was taken. I personally apologize to President and Senator Clinton" (DiStaso, New Hampshire Union Leader, 5/13).

Also apologizing to Clinton yesterday: Obama supporter/Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN), who "compared Clinton to the Glenn Close character in "Fatal Attraction" -- a spurned woman turned stalker who was apparently drowned in a bathtub only to jump up one more time to be shot dead." Cohen: "Glenn Close should have stayed in that tub, and Sen. Clinton has had a remarkable career and needs to move to the next step, which is helping elect the Democratic nominee" (Tapper, ABC News, 5/12).

Cohen's office released an apology soon after he made the comments. Cohen: "I sincerely apologize for the comments I made about Senator Clinton's campaign. I have great respect for Senator Clinton as a US Senator. She has waged an historic campaign which has done much to break the glass ceiling. My comments obviously do not reflect the sentiments of Senator Obama or the Obama campaign. Nor do they reflect my opinion of Senator Clinton whom I have known for years and admire" (Mooney, CNN, 5/12).

The Ceiling Caved

Can the "sisterhood" save Clinton again? Once again, women are "rallying" to Clinton's 11th-hour "call for aid," even though Clinton's "historic bid ... is in its final acts." Dem insiders for "weeks had been wringing their hands over the impact of a disillusioned African-American community, a legitimate thing to worry about." However, the "gender gap" between Clinton and Obama in "critical primary states ... also must be dealt with" if Dems are going to reclaim the WH (Cummings, Politico, 5/13).

Margaret Hamrick, 51, "is part of a female army that is watching a dream fade with the Clinton campaign." Women like Hamrick "can't get over the irony" that Clinton seems to have lost her race with Obama "right when she looks to be at the height of her game" (Fiore, Los Angeles Times, 5/13).

2 Legit 2 Quit?

Clinton's "refusal to quit" the WH race has driven speculation that she's "angling" to become VP, Senate majority leader or "even" the Dem nominee in '12. Others say she and Bill Clinton have "cheated political death so many times" they are "genetically incapable of acknowledging" even an "inevitable" defeat.

However, few expect Clinton to "campaign enthusiastically" for Obama "unless she can be assured of a consolation prize," such as VP. Still, there are "reports" that Michelle Obama would "veto any proposal to put Clinton on the ticket." Besides, a VP Clinton "might prove distracting to Obama, who could feel compelled to keep a wary eye" on "fiercely ambitious understudy" Clinton (Sammon, Washington Examiner, 5/13).

When asked if Clinton should get out of the race after the WV primary today, HRC supporter Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI) said: "Maybe... I don't know. I don't want to tell her what to do. But I am confident by the end of this month, we will have a nominee," adding that it will most likely be Obama (Gray, Detroit Free Press, 5/13).

NBC's Mitchell: "She has told everyone around her in the inner circle it's on to June 3 unless there is some extraordinary event that takes place that knocks her out of that game plan" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 5/12).

CNN's Yellin, saying there are new signs Clinton isn't planning on dropping out soon: "We have just found out ... that Chelsea Clinton is heading to Puerto Rico tomorrow, and she will be there through Thursday. Now, that's significant, because, first of all, the Clinton campaign is saddled with enormous debt, and it shows they're still spending and doubling down on the upcoming primary contests. But more relevant is the fact that Puerto Rico doesn't vote until June 1. So, they're spending money in a place that's voting so far out from now. ... The one caveat, I would say, is, this could all be a big deceit. She could be playing us all, and then surprise us with a 'get out' announcement soon. But it doesn't look that way" ("AC 360," 5/12).

Time's Klein: "The reality is that the Clinton campaign needs some grief counseling. ... They're in denial. The next stage is anger. And the stage after that is bargaining. And the task for the Democratic Party right now is to get the Clintons from denial to bargaining, without stopping in the anger phase" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/12).

Washington Post's Dionne writes, "Clinton still has a lot to win this year, but not the presidency and not the vice presidency." With Obama "having effectively secured" the "nomination, it is hard for the Clinton camp to focus on her successes in this contest. But Clinton now possesses strengths she did not enjoy when the campaign began. She is, more than ever before, her own person, having emerged decisively from the shadow of her husband." Her "future depends on discovering a new role, even if it is not the one she had originally hoped to play" (5/13).

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