From The Hotline Latest Edition for Monday, May 12,2008

As The (Two) Worlds Turn

Mon. May 12, 2008


McCain spends another week straddling his two competing worlds. The "maverick" starts by talking up carbon cap-and-trade and Kyoto at an OR wind farm, while the "party standard bearer" heads to KY 5/16 for the NRA convo.

-- His ability to generate enthusiasm among rank-and-filers, while simultaneously trying to convince indies he's no Bush, is his obvious challenge this year. But will it be easier or harder once he finally gets into real back-forth w/a Dem nominee? Will disaffected GOPers come home once the energy and focus is no longer on the Obama/HRC contest? And, how well does McCain's moderate profile hold under direct contrast w/Dems?

-- Cong. GOPers have similar troubles. They like the idea of a "maverick" leading their ticket, esp. in NJ, NH, OR and ME. But will it matter if they can't even hold their safe CDs?

-- Example, the 5/13 MS-01 special. Both sides give Dem Childers the edge in a CD Bush carried w/ 62%. Sure, geography will have something to do with it. Even so, it's clear that the GOP brand is so damaged - and attacks on Pelosi/Obama are so ineffective - that GOPers should start planning new, creative strategies to prevent an all-out disaster this fall.

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