From The Hotline Latest Edition for Friday, May 9,2008

Hurts Me More Than It Hurts You

Fri. May 9, 2008


Those calling for HRC to drop out and the latest superdels backing Obama are focused on the same point: the dragged-out process is hurting the party and helping McCain. But is that true?

According to the latest Hotline/Diageo poll, taken just before the 5/6 primaries, Obama and HRC remain well-liked among Dem voters. Despite Obama's rough few weeks, 56% of Dems said they'd vote for him "enthusiastically", the same percentage as did in 3/08.

Meanwhile, McCain's time on the sidelines hasn't been helping him. His approval ratings have dropped 10 pts since 3/08, while Obama's have dropped just 4. HRC's? They're up 3. Among GOP voters, more now say they're voting for McCain as a vote against the Dem, not as an enthusiastic vote for him.

This doesn't mean Obama's bruise-free. Among Dems who say they'd either stay home or back McCain in 11/08, 16% said it was due to Obama's lack of experience -- an issue, of course, that McCain already is trying to exploit. And among indie voters, Obama is not seen as positively as he was in 3/08. Today, his fav/unfav among those voters is tied in the mid-40s, not much better than HRC's 43/49%.

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