From The Hotline Latest Edition for Friday, May 9,2008

THE FLY-BY

Checkin' Those Voters Stats

Fri. May 9, 2008


ARIZONA: The Indie 196

Indies "account for nearly half" the 420K voters added to the rolls since 3/04. The 18% jump in total voter registration includes 108K new Dems, 116K additional GOPers and 196K indies. In Pima Co., Dems added 30K new Dems, 22K new GOPers and 37K indies (AP, 5/7).

CALIFORNIA: Poized And Ready

Sec/State. Debra Bowen (D) reported that Dem registration "jumped" from 42.7% in 12/07 to 43.5% in 4/08, while GOP registration "declined by virtually the same amount." CA Dem Chair Art Torres cited a 469K-voter gain from '04 and a 109K-voter loss by the GOP. Torres and other Dems "are also elated" that 2 counties that had acquired GOP pluralities during the decades of Dem decline, Ventura and Stanislaus, now have moved back into the Dem column by narrow margins. The positive Dem registration "has ramifications" for this year's elections. Portions of Stanislaus Co. are in CD 12, where Rep. Jeff Denham (R) faces a Dem sponsored recall election. And GOP registration has slipped by 3 percentage points since Denham won re-election in '06. Finally, whatever hopes John McCain may harbor for winning CA's electoral votes "will be dimmed" if the gap between the GOP and Dems "continues to widen" (Walters, Sacramento Bee, 5/5).

While there are other potential aspirants for gov., few in politics "doubt that" Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and LG John Garamendi (D) "see themselves as successors" to Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). The flashpoint of last week's exchange "was a batch of insurance regulations" that Poizner posted on the Insurance Dept. Website, rewriting rules that Garamendi had promulgated in late '06. Almost immediately, Geramendi "chimed in" with a letter to Poizner "describing himself as 'more than disappointed (and) alarmed that after making such substantial changes to a complex set of regulations, you are proposing that they be hastily adopted as emergency regulations." More: "Some of your modifications to the prior approval regulations create gaping exceptions that undermine the spirit of the intent of Proposition 103."

Poizner responded a day later with an "even more barbed letter" to Garamendi, terming "the lieutenant governor's blast as 'a press release written in the first person.' and chiding him for 'action in ignorance' by denouncing the new rules without thoroughly reading them." Chances "are against" Garamendi and Poizner facing each other directly in '10, given the "spate of potential candidates," but it's certainly possible. If it happens, insurance will be one of their issues (Walters, Sacramento Bee, 5/6).

COLORADO: Closer To The Edge

The number of indie voters continued last month "to edge closer" to becoming the dominant voting bloc in the state. Figures from the sec/state's office show the gap between indies and GOPers is less than 5K voters. At the beginning of the year, the GOP had a 12K voter edge over indies. However, Dems "gained the most new voters," 7K, among the 3 groups and now make up 30.6% of the electorate- compared with 34.6% for GOPers and 34.4% for indies. The GOP gained 2K and indies added 5K (Hubbard, Rocky Mountain News, 5/5).

GEORGIA: He Just Didn't Want To Let Down His Senate Softball Team

Sen. Johnny Isakson (R) "has decided to seek" re-election in '10 and "will not run" for GOV. Isakson spokesperson Joan Kirchner "said Isakson gave the idea 'long and serious consideration' but decided he wants to remain in the Senate." Kirchner: "He came to the conclusion that he loves serving in the U.S. Senate and feels he can best serve the state in the Senate." Kirchner "acknowledged" that the announcement comes early, but "she called it 'very definitive' and said Isakson wanted to make his intentions clear." Assuming it holds, the decision "would have broad implications" for the GA GOP. It would "clear the way" for a host of other political heavyweights to run for GOV and "prevent a scramble" for Isakson's open Senate seat that could have drawn House members and others (Evans, AP, 5/9).

NEW YORK: Yawn

"With 18 months to go before New Yorkers elect a new mayor, the field of candidates emerging to succeed Mayor Bloomberg is failing to excite New Yorkers." Baruch College prof. Douglas Muzzio "said the problem is lack of 'star power' and 'juice.'" Muzzio: "The conventional wisdom is that this sort of unexciting field. ... I don't know if any of these folks can turn people on."

On the Dem side there's Rep. Anthony Weiner (D), "an aggressive campaigner who has clashed with" Bloomberg; Comp. William Thompson (D) "whose own lawyer was recently reported to have derided the candidate in a courtroom," and Council Speaker Christine Quinn (D), "who is embroiled in a budget scandal at City Hall that would derail her anticipated mayoral bid."

The lone GOPer in the race, "billionaire" supermarket mogul John Catsimatidis "has garnered little enthusiasm from political insiders, who are refusing to consider him 'the next Bloomberg' despite his personal wealth and outsider status." One sign "of dissatisfaction with the field is the public's fixation on" NYPD Commis. Ray Kelly (R), "who is fast becoming one of the most talked about figures in mayoral conversations." Ex-Mayor Ed Koch, "who long ago has announced his support for" Kelly, said 5/6 "that the call for 'good candidates' to enter the race is growing, and said the public is not yet satisfied with the field." Koch: "I believe people are constantly thinking of Ray Kelly" (Rauh, New York Sun, 5/7).

TEXAS: And It Wouldn't Hurt To Raise A Buck Or Two

State Sen. Florence Shapiro (R) "is considering setting up an exploratory" cmte to run for the Senate in anticipation of Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) entering the GOV race. Shapiro consultant Bryan Eppstein "said people around the state are urging" her "to seek the Senate if Ms. Hutchinson resigns or doesn't run again." Eppstein: "Right now she is strongly considering it" (Slater, Dallas Morning News, 5/9).

"Gov. Rick Perry (R) then appoints someone to fill" Hutchinson's seat, but there in an election in '10 in "in which the voters would decide who the next senator is. Shapiro, assuming she's not the person appointed by Perry (or even if she is) would jump into that race" (Embry, Austin American-Statesman, "Postcards" blog, 5/8).

TX Dems "are planning a resurgence of late, predicting the possibility of gains in this year's Congressional races to go with the six state legislative seats they picked up" in '06. The Dems "are threatening this year in the GOP-held 7th and 10th districts." Dem spokesperson Hector Nieto: "Since 2004, Texas Democrats have been making significant gains throughout the state. These gains are not a fluke, but a trend that continues to grow."

TX GOPers "disagree -- and there is data to support their claim." There are 5.7K elected offices in TX, and GOPers are just 191 shy of holding a true majority of those. The GOP picked up 206 seats at the local level since '06.

If Hutchinson resigns, Perry could look to state railroad commissioner Michael Williams, " a clack statewide elected official" as a potential nominee. LG David Dewhurst (R) "is also on the short list." Roger Williams, "a wealthy automobile dealer near Forth Worth who is close to the Bush family, is also thought to have political ambitions and might get a phone call from Perry" (Drucker, Roll Call, 5/6).

TENNESSEE: T-Minus 5 Months And Counting

Gov. Phil Bredesen (D) has 2 years left of his term. "That is bad news" for TN Dem Party "with a remarkably weak bench looking toward" the '10 GOV race.

Ex-Gov. Ned McWherter (D) "created the cardinal rule" of TN politics "when he said anyone serious about running for statewide office needed to start two years out from the Election Day in question." THus far. leading TN Dems "appear to be ready to sit out in 2010 if McWherter's law still holds true" None of TN's congressmen "are ready to come home from" DC (Brewer, Nashville City Paper, 5/5).

WYOMING: I Dip, You Dip, We Dip

More people are registering to vote in WY, and so far Dems "are winning the battle for new recruits." Between 2/19 and 4/1, the number of Dems climbed 4% to 59.6K. GOPers "easily maintained their majority status, but saw their numbers dip slightly during the same period" from 136.7K from 136.8K (Miller, Casper Star-Tribune, 5/6).