From The Hotline Latest Edition for Thursday, May 8,2008

INDIANA (5/6 PRIMARY)

Only Fools Rush In

Thu. May 8, 2008


Barack Obama aides charged 5/7 "that they would have had an even stronger showing were it not for meddling by an unlikely booster of" Hillary Clinton: Rush Limbaugh. "The impact of Limbaugh's 'Operation Chaos' emerged as an intriguing point of debate, particularly in" IN, "where registered voters could participate in either primary," and where Clinton won by 14K votes.

"Limbaugh crowed about the success of his ploy all day" 5/7, "featuring on-air testimonials from voters" in IN and NC "who recounted their illicit pleasure in casting votes for Clinton." But Limbaugh called off the operation 5/7, "saying he wants Obama to be the party's pick." Limbaugh: "I now believe he would be the weakest of the Democrat nominees."

Sen. John Kerry (D-MA): "Rush Limbaugh was tampering with the primary, and the GOP has clearly declared that it wants Hillary Clinton as the candidate." Obama mgr David Plouffe: "[Limbaugh] had a clear factor in the outcome."

But "even if Limbaugh's exhortations brought many of his listeners to the polls as he says, his operation did not cripple Obama, who emerged stronger from the day's primaries." In IN, 10% of primary voters described themselves as GOPers, and they went for Clinton by 8 points. In NC they were 5% of the electorate and they went for her by 29 points. But 6 in 10 GOPers who supported Clinton in IN said they would vote for John McCain. By contrast, most GOPers "who voted for Obama said they would back him against McCain" (MacGillis/Slevin, Washington Post, 5/8).

The numbers "may not support" Rush's case. With only about 20K votes separating Obama and Clinton, out of more than 1.25M votes cast 5/6 "-- there are 100 reasonable reasons for the outcome." Looked at another way, exit polling found 17% of all IN primary voters said they would vote for McCain in a match up of McCain against Clinton. And 41% "of that number were people who voted for Clinton but indicated that they will vote for McCain" in Nov. That amounts to just under 7% of the overall IN electorate "attributable to the so-called 'Limbaugh effect.' But that's Democrats and Republicans alike."

Limbaugh: "In fact, some of the people show up and they ask for a Democrat ballot, and the poll worker says, 'Why, what are you going to do?' He says, 'Operation Chaos,' and they just laugh" (Silva, Chicago Tribune's "The Swamp," 5/7).

Thousands of GOP voters pulled a Dem ballot 5/6. Howard Co. GOP chair Craig Dunn estimated the number of GOPers in the county requesting a Dem ballot was 5.7K. Dunn: "I'm not in the least bit concerned. I talked to other county chairmen and they felt the same" (de la Bastide, Kokomo Tribune, 5/7).

Not So Fast, Sister

"About a dozen elderly Holy Cross nuns who didn't have required photo identification when they went to vote" 5/6 "had options available to them that would have allowed their ballots to count," according the the IN sec/state's office. "The women, all in their 80s and 90s, could have" voted absentee by mail in advance of the election. In IN, anyone 65 or older or disabled is eligible to vote absentee by mail with no ID required." They could have also "cast provisional ballots and received assistance obtaining the proper ID within 10 days."

Sec/State CoS Matthew Tusing: "They weren't turned away. They knew the law and didn't want to (follow) it." Sister Julie McGuire was the a poll worker 5/6 who had to turn the nuns away. "The sisters has been told in advance about Indiana's ID requirement to vote, according to McGuire."

"The Sisters of the Holy Cross issued a statement" 5/7 "saying the sisters will not be available for interviews 'for personal and health reasons'" (Fosmoe, South Bend Tribune, 5/8).

McGuire: "One came down this morning, and she was 98, and she said, 'I don't want to do that.'" Some "showed up with out of date passports. None of them drive." Elsewhere across IN "voting appeared to run smoothly, despite the fears of some elections experts that the photo ID law could cause confusion at the polls" (AP, 5/7).

Just over 39% of IN's registered voters cast ballots in the primaries. The turnout was the highest since '88, when 42% of INans voted in the year's primaries. 20% voted in the '00 primaries, 21% voted in the '04 primaries (Strauss, Indianapolis Star, 5/8).

"Hogwash!"

"What was wrong in Lake County?" The delay, combined with Lake Co.'s "history of fraud and corruption at the polls, set tongues wagging." No one "raised allegations of illegal activity. But some say old-school politics were at play." Clinton supporter/Hammond Mayor Thomas McDermott: "They wanted to put Barack Obama over the top with Lake County's vote and games were being played like the 1950s."

Obama supporter/Lake Co. Dem chair/Gary Mayor Rudy Clay "denied any misdeeds." Clay: "Anytime you vote an additional 11,000 early votes with the same number of staff that you have all the time, I think the election board staff did a tremendous job in the time that they had to do it in" (Bellandi, AP, 5/7).

Obama won Lake Co. 56% to 43%. On 5/7, "Clay said it was 'hogwash' to suggest that officials were doing anything to sway the state in favor of Obama." Clay "said the election problems were a result of out of date procedures" (Garcia/Ford, Los Angeles Times, 5/8).