From The Hotline Latest Edition for Thursday, May 8,2008

THE FIELD

Map Quest

Thu. May 8, 2008


Wall Street Journal's Meckler looks at the electoral map in a general-election race between John McCain and Barack Obama. "This year, both sides are setting their sights on distant targets. The result may be a scrambled battleground map that mixes traditional swing states with those long thought to be in one camp or the other long before" 11/08. McCain and Obama "both believe they appeal to independents and that their candidacies open new opportunities."

If Obama wins the Dem nod, "his campaign hopes to crack" the GOP lock on the South with VA as its "top target." Other Southern states "are more of a stretch," but Dem strategists mention NC, MS and GA, "where the rise in African-American turnout spurred by Obama's history-making campaign could make for a competitive race," if not a Dem victory. "More realistically," Dems "are looking to" CO, NM and NV, all of which Pres. Bush carried in '04.

But some GOPers say McCain "is the ideal candidate" to halt Dem gains in the Mountain West "partly because of his image with Hispanic voters," which is better than most GOPers'. McCain's appeal to Hispanic voters, along with his moderate record on the environment and other issues, has the candidate convinced that he has a shot in CA. Most Dems, and even some of McCain's advisers, "think that is not likely unless the race is such a blowout that they don't need" CA. McCain "is also talking about competing" in NJ, "though many are skeptical he could take the state his party hasn't carried in 20 years" (5/8).

A WH general-election campaign "pitting" Obama against McCain "will be a close and unpredictable contest, political pros forecast." Pollster Scott Rasmussen "noted that as many as 25 states could be competitive battlegrounds, more than in prior elections."

Obama "is running well in the GOP-leaning states" of IA, CO and NV. McCain "is competitive" in the Dem-leaning states of MI and PA. Obama's "stirring oratory calling for change and unity has galvanized young voters, blacks, anti-war critics and independents." McCain's "reputation" as a Vietnam War hero and maverick GOPer "wins him backing from" indies and conservative Dems (Campanille, New York Post, 5/8).

Surveying The Pollsters

Roll Call columnist Stu Rothenberg isn't happy with the polling that's been conducted so far in the WH'08 race. "Everyone seems to conduct polls these days, but not everyone conducts good ones. That's the message I drew after reviewing dozens of presidential polls conducted" from IA through IN and NC.

"The worst-performing poll has been Suffolk." Their pre-primary survey "correctly predicted the winner in only five of nine contests." "It was wrong" in both NH primaries, the CA Dem primary and, "incredibly," the Dem primary in MA, "the state where the university is located."

Rasmussen, Reuters/Zogby/C-SPAN and ARG "produced better results — but not by much. Each firm picked the winner a little under two-thirds of the time."

"The best pollster, by a wide margin, was SurveyUSA, which coincidentally has conducted" some House and SEN race polls for Roll Call. "I'll admit to not being a fan of SurveyUSA's automated polling, and some of the firm’s past results have struck me as simply wrong. But in examining presidential primary polling, SurveyUSA stands well above its competition" (5/8).