From The Hotline Latest Edition for Thursday, May 8,2008

THE FIELD

Straight Into The Great Divide

Thu. May 8, 2008


After a "decisive loss" in NC and a "disappointingly narrow victory" in IN on 5/6 p.m., Hillary Clinton said in WV on 5/7 that it was "still early" and that the "dynamic electoral environment" could still swing the nod "her way." Clinton, speaking after an event in Shepherdstown, WV: "I'm staying in this race until there is a nominee, and obviously I'm going to work as hard as I can to become that nominee."

But with "the political world trained on" Clinton's "financial and electoral viability," Barack Obama has "moved closer to becoming the first African-American presidential nominee of a major party" (Healy/Zeleny, New York Times, 5/8).

Tough Talk

All "the feisty talk" from Clinton and her advisers 5/7 "couldn't dispel the growing perception" among Dems "that the party's presidential race is nearly over," and that Obama "is going to be the winner." Speaking about the flagging spirits of Clinton supporters, neutral Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA): "The air is completely let out of them. They are resigned to the fact that it's probably not going to work out."

"So confident are Obama supporters," that some have "begun talking of his convention acceptance speech." If Obama win the nod, "his acceptance address would be the night" of 8/28 -- "the 45th anniversary" of Martin Luther King's "I Have A Dream" speech (Calmes/Davis, Wall Street Journal, 5/8).

While Clinton is launching her own "no-surrender" tour, one "senior party big shot" had a message for her: "It's his party now." It's now clear that "Clinton's once-bright political star has been eclipsed by the rising Obama." Although several Obama supporters joined in asked Clinton "to quit," most seemed "eager to avoid the impression that Obama was pushing Clinton toward the exits." Obama supporter/Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) said: "This is her decision and it is only her decision" (Bazinet/McAuliff/Saltonstall, New York Daily News, 5/8).

What Next?

Clinton is now "fueling her campaign with another multimillion-dollar loan," and she appears to be "short on options." Still, looking ahead to WV, Clinton "had the solace of knowing she would be competing for an electorate seemingly tailor-made for her candidacy."

As for the race continuing, many Dems are hoping for "an exit strategy" from Clinton "that enables their divided party to reunite quickly" (Lambrecht, St. Louis Post-Disatch, 5/8).

To do that, superdelegates should close ranks around "Obama at the top of the ticket." AZ Gov. Janet Napolitano (D) said: "It is now time for the superdelegates to bring this process to a close."

Still, the Obama camp will remain "conciliatory toward Clinton." But they're also "looking beyond the primary." Obama mgr. David Plouffe recently "announced a 50-state voter drive in tandem with national party committees." Plouffe: "We can see the finish line here" (Raasch, Gannett News Service, 5/8).

Cash Flow

In the "money hunt," Clinton "has focused on the tried-and-true practice of bundling, which relies on a few hundred well-connected money raisers to wrench maximum contributions from donors." Whereas Obama "has largely abandoned bundling, instead drawing on a Web-based cadre of hundreds of thousands of more modest givers." Obama's "army of small donors," says Clinton finance co-chair Yashar Hedayat: "can raise a quarter million dollars in an hour." The Internet has changed the face of fund raising, Hedayat said: "The era of bundlers may be over -- or at least rendered far less important." If Obama wins the nod, "the next test for his money-making network will be whether it can keep running" (Cooper/Emshwiller, Wall Street Journal, 5/8).

Vote Rich

After IN and NC, Obama "leads" Clinton in the popular vote by 850K, not counting MI and FL but "including projections from the caucuses." If MI and FL are included, Obama "still leads" with a 230K "vote advantage."

In order to claim a lead in the popular vote, Clinton "would still need to win the upcoming contests by nearly 20 percentage points." Without Puerto Rico, "her chances are even bleaker" (Cox, "The Caucus," New York Times, 5/7).

Just Words On A Page

Here's a collected sampling from opinion writers around the country:

Denver Post's ed board writes, Clinton, "looking for a groundswell, a change in momentum, has basically run out of time." It seems "this close race will go on for the time being, and why not?" Why not "finish it out?" Obama "is getting the opportunity to show the country who he is and what he stands for" (5/7).

Orange County Register's ed board writes, if Obama is the Dem nominee, "the long primary season has revealed potentially troubling problems" for Dems. There appears "to be a widening gap among Democratic constituencies." Obama has "deepened his hold on black voters, young people and first-time voters, and highly educated people," while Clinton has "morphed into the beer-drinking, gun-toting candidate of white voters, especially those without a college education, and older women." Many of the Dems "will probably come home once the nomination is secured, but will enough of them stay away" to hurt Dem chances in 11/08? (5/8).

Detroit News' Mitchell writes, "It is now clear to me that" Clinton and Obama "must be on the Democratic ticket" if the Dems "want to win the presidency this year" (5/8).

Capital Times' Nichols writes, Obama "still has a lot of work to do with white working-class voters." The risk to his candidacy "has less to do with the nomination race than with the fall." In NC and IN, "roughly half of Clinton backers indicated that they would not vote for Obama" in 11/08, but instead vote for McCain (5/7).

Dallas Morning News' Leubsdorf writes, "this mixed picture may do little to convince superdelegates" which Dem is the "stronger standard bearer." But Obama's "lead in elected delegates, states won and voters is likely to ensure that he gets more superdelegates" -- and the nod (5/8).

How It Looks From TV Land

New York Times' Brooks: "Let's face it. The Democrats are still in an extraordinarily strong position. You saw a congressional race in Louisiana Republicans lose. Republicans are in terrible shape, so Democrats have plenty of room to bounce back from this" ("NewsHour," PBS, 5/7).

Ex-WH adviser David Gergen, on the rest of the race: "The rest of the race has to be very positive. And Hillary Clinton was very positive today. She didn't go after Barack Obama personally. And then the exit by the loser, likely Hillary Clinton, has to be very gracious. It has to be one that unites. I do not think they have to form a unity ticket in order to bring people back, but I do think it's critical that ... whoever loses do so graciously" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/7).

Obama supporter/DNCer James Zogby: "If Democrats were going to come together, the time to come together wasn't at the end of the process, it was during the process. It wasn't a play into the race card as it was played into in a very destructive way. So you're right. We have two polarized constituencies right now within the Democratic Party with Mrs. Clinton winning one side of it and Barack Obama winning the other side of it. Both are essential for victory. It's time for the party to heal now. This can't be about a candidate, it can't be about simply people feeling good about losing. It's got be about the party coming together. I thing the time to do sit now. If we don't do it now, it's going to be more difficult going forward" ("Lou Dobbs Tonight," CNN, 5/7).