From The Hotline Latest Edition for Wednesday, May 7,2008

NORTH CAROLINA

Quoth The Voters, "Never, Moore"

Wed. May 7, 2008


LG Bev Perdue (D) won the 5/6 Dem primary, defeating Treas. Richard Moore (D), and ret. USAF Col. Dennis Nielsen (D). On the GOP side, Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory (R) defeated state Sen. Fred Smith (R), atty Bill Graham (R), ex-NC Supreme Court Justice Bob Orr (R), and pecan farmer Elbie Powers (R). Results, with 100% reporting (NC Board of Elections, 5/7).

NC GOV Dem Primary             NC GOV GOP Primary
              Votes %age                     Votes  %age
Perdue      845,698 56.10%     McCrory     233,877  46.25%
Moore       601,071 39.87      Smith       186,402  36.87
Nielsen      60,653  4.02      Graham       46,800   9.26
                               Orr          34,104   6.74
                               Powers        4,451   0.88
TOTAL:    1,507,422            TOTAL:      505,634

Perdue defeated Moore "handily" 5/6, following a campaign "that stressed pocketbook, kitchen-table issues such as education and health care."

Perdue started her campaign "ahead in polling, but she saw her lead narrow as the race became a duel of attack ads. Last month, Perdue pledged to stay positive, and she won the advertising war by not returning fire."

Perdue: "I believe it was hard work, and I've been a worker, I've been a fighter my entire life. ... I have folks who are in the audience tonight who looked at me and said, 'A woman could never do this.' I think that capacity to stand up for myself has resonated with other people."

Moore, "sensing" 5/7's outcome, "did not throw a party for supporters." Moore: "We may not have won this race tonight, but we did something that's even more important if the promises that have been made become promises kept. We've set the agenda for the campaign this fall, not just the race for governor, but the whole Democratic ticket."

The Perdue camp had raised "far more money than the four major [GOP] candidates combined.... She has used her years as [LG] to build a network of supporters" across NC, "as evidenced by her various endorsements in the primary."

"Moore's researchers attacked Perdue over votes she cast in her [long] legislative career. Those votes, Moore argued, showed that her support on some issues was expedient."

"At first it appeared" the primary "would be an escalating war of attack ads over votes, conflicting statements, gaffes and campaign contributors. Then in April, Perdue announced she was pulling her negative ads."

"As the campaign wound down, Moore attacked Perdue's record on minority issues and civil rights, throwing at her a 20-year-old legislative vote as well as rebel flag-emblazoned caps and beer koozies sold at a convenience store" in GA "owned by her relatives." Moore's ads "drew swift denunciation" from Dems, and "may have hurt Moore more than Perdue."

"While Perdue would make history as the state's first female governor, she is cut from the same cloth" as many NC Dem govs -- "centrist" and "pro-business." She is part of the Dem establishment "that has long had control of the levers of power in Raleigh" (Niolet, Raleigh News & Observer, 5/7).

Pat On The Back

McCrory "was the last entry in a five-person race but quickly outpaced his opponents" to clinch the nod 5/7. "The five-way race ... became, essentially, a two-way contest" between McCrory and Smith. "A millionaire housing developer," Smith spent more than $2.4M of his own money, raising an additional $1M. McCrory, who "ran as an outsider, criticizing government waste and political scandals," raised about $1.2M.

Smith "defended his decision to use limited television and radio ads, saying he wanted to talk directly with voters, and emphasized his support for constitutional amendments to limit budget increases and define marriage as between a man and a woman, as state law already does."

"Later in the campaign, he and McCrory engaged in a negative air war. McCrory questioned Smith's road-paving contracts, and Smith implied that McCrory was running to help only his city."

McCrory is the GOPer who Dems "predicted could be the toughest opponent in the general election. He has largely steered away from hot-button social issues and concentrated on prudent government spending and strengthening the judicial system." In fact, in his victory speech last p.m., McCrory "reached out" to Moore supporters.

In his concession speech, Smith, an ex-high school football star, "promised to help McCrory win" in Nov. McCrory: "We're going to be good losers. I learned that on the football field" (Bonner, Raleigh News & Observer, 5/7).

"With his wife, Ann, at his side, McCrory poked fun at the news media" for covering the pres. primary more than the gov. primary. McCrory: "Senator Obama and Senator Clinton are going home tomorrow, but Pat McCrory's staying right here" (Ingram, Charlotte Observer, 5/7).

Looking Ahead...

"Voters will choose between a seasoned mayor who won allies across party lines and a female legislator who broke barriers in two branches of government."

Perdue, "the state's first female [LG], is the candidate of the [Dem] establishment whose power base is in the east. The eastern part of the state is also home to much of the party's leadership."

Perdue "will be the experienced candidate, inheriting the leadership of the party that has run state government for nearly all of the past century. [Dem] legislative and fundraising leaders lined up behind her long ago."

McCrory "has already positioned himself as the change candidate. ... He'll hammer the idea of his distance from Raleigh, geographically and philosophically. ... He will be aided by the moderate image that will likely appeal to the influx of new voters who have poured into the state."

"Handicaps loom for both candidates. Perdue has to avoid being pegged as the status quo candidate as a [Dem], the party in power and one stained with scandal over the past year. McCrory will have to unite an historically divided [GOP] and lure money from business donors who traditionally give more to [Dems] in state races" (Johnson/Ingram, Charlotte Observer, 5/7).

McCrory "wants a series of debates" with Perdue. McCrory: "We need to debate the culture of the old status quo of the old politics of North Carolina. I plan to bring a new culture, a culture of vision, a culture of problem-solving, a culture of strategic thinking, a culture that understands that quality of life is our No. 1 goal in North Carolina" (Niolet, Raleigh News & Observer, 5/7).

Ending On A High Note

Charlotte Observer editorializes, Both Perdue and McCrory won their primaries "with positive campaigns that emphasized their accomplishments and what they hope to do as governor."

While Moore is "regarded by many as an outstanding treasurer," he "never seemed to find the right formula for persuading voters to support his candidacy.... He aired some negative ads that seemed to help narrow the gap but overreached late in the campaign when he implied a link with the KKK." Perdue's decision to "air only positive ads" in the concluding weeks "was a gamble that paid off."

"It's reassuring that candidates who opted to run positive campaigns won their party's nominations. They represent distinctly different points of view even as both promise change in Raleigh" (5/7).