From The Hotline Latest Edition for Wednesday, May 7,2008

KENTUCKY (5/20 PRIMARY)

Speed Of Lightning, Roar Of Thunder, Underdog!

Wed. May 7, 2008


The campaign invasion of KY "began with a trickle" weeks ago as local field offices sprouted up for both Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. The campaigns will likely "reach a new pitch" in coming days. Clinton: "For too long we've let places like West Virginia and Kentucky slip out of the Democratic column...I'm going to work my heart out in West Virginia and Kentucky this month and I intend to win there in November in the general election." Clinton has already committed to headline a Dem fundraiser in Louisville on 5/9. Most political observers and Dem officials "say Clinton is likely to win" KY's primary.

State Rep./ex-AG Greg Stumbo (D): "We tend to support people we know. We're a very clannish state in a lot of ways." Even Obama supporters "concede that their candidate faces 'an uphill battle.'" Ex-MS Gov. Ray Mabus (D): "I think he's the underdog. But he's also been the underdog in a lot of places."

Both candidates "have the opportunities" to appeal to key demographic groups here. Western KY Univ. prof. Saundra Ardrey said turnout figures for black voters in Louisville and Lexington will be key to watch. Meanwhile, Clinton "trounced Obama" among white, blue-collar men in nearby OH and PA. Ardrey: "So we expect Hillary Clinton to take the Appalachian areas, the rural areas of Kentucky. What will be interesting is if either one of them can make inroads into the other's base." Ardrey said what Clinton "can do is 'build some momentum and wins in the states that are left, and she might give the superdelegates pause or get them to even change who they're supporting.'" For those reasons, both camps "have ramped up the hyperbole," calling KY and the remaining contests crucial (Alessi Lexington Herald-Leader, 5/7).