From The Hotline Latest Edition for Tuesday, May 6,2008

VIRGINIA

Warner Redux?

Tue. May 6, 2008


Ex-Gov. Mark Warner (D), who left office in '06 with a near-70% approval rating, launched his campaign 5/4 "with a commanding lead in the polls and the money race."

Unopposed for the party nod, Warner faces two GOPers in the race to replace retiring, 5-term Sen. John Warner (R). Ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore, who directly preceded Warner, is heavily favored to clinch the GOP nod over state Del. Robert Marshall.

M. Warner, "who has deep pockets of his own that he can use to self-finance a campaign, if needed," raised $2.5M in the 1stQ. (His personal assets are estimated at between $88M and $390M.) Gilmore raised about $400K, while Marshall raised less than $52K.

In a Rasmussen poll conducted 4/1, M. Warner led Gilmore 55% to 39%. Christopher Newport Univ. prof. Quentin Kidd: "Short of a scandal or a 'macaca moment,' [Warner will win easily]" (Whitley, Richmond Times-Dispatch, 5/4).

Long Shots Across The Bow

"When you have as much ground to gain" as Gilmore does, "playing the nice guy is not an option."
For weeks, he "has been attacking the high-flying" Dem, "fully aware that unless he can rattle Warner and dramatically shake up the race," the GOP will lose a seat it's held for nearly four decades.

"In online videos and in person, Gilmore strives to label Warner as a tax-prone liberal opportunist whose word is worthless." He also "wants to handcuff Warner to Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. In speeches, Gilmore usually mentions Warner, Obama and Clinton in the same breath while aligning himself" with John McCain. (When asked whether he would campaign alongside either Dem in VA, "Warner's answer was immediate: 'Yes.'")

"Gilmore yard signs and bumper stickers marry his campaign logo to McCain's," even though McCain has not endorsed him. In fact, Gilmore had "questioned McCain's conservative credentials" during his own bid for WH'08. UVA prof. Larry Sabato: "McCain is the only good news that has manifested itself for Jim Gilmore so far in this race."

Gilmore "still faces a gritty nomination battle" from Marshall, "a Christian conservative best known as the legislature's most implacable adversary of abortion rights and gay marriage." Gilmore "claims he has enough delegate votes to win" the state GOP convo on 5/31, "but Marshall rejects that and is conceding nothing" (Lewis, AP, 5/3).

Purple People Pleaser

Warner "kicked off his campaign" 5/4, "calling himself a 'radical centrist' and pledging to bring a bipartisan spirit to Washington."

Warner: "It is time for a new approach in Washington: results, not rhetoric; and progress, not delay. The old practices of left and right, or red versus blue will not work at a time when our challenge really is future versus past."

Warner "offered little in the way of policies during a 20-minute speech in which he rued the high price of gas and said the [US] must withdraw from Iraq." But advisers "said he will begin to assert policy positions during his three-day swing" across VA.

"Although Warner did not mention Gilmore by name, he took a few shots" at his predecessor "for leaving the state in financial disarray and understating the scope of the problem." Warner: "Everyone was amazed that the budget shortfall [Gilmore] left behind was four times greater that he said it would be" (Fiske, Norfolk Virginian-Pilot, 5/5).

The Bluegrass, Blue-Dog Dem

Opening his campaign in Abingdon, a small SW town where he had launched his race for gov., Warner "pledg[ed] not to forget" VA's "forgotten rural areas." SW VA was a region Warner "cultivated heavily when he was governor, pushing economic development projects into the depressed region and highlighting its Appalachian culture."

Warner: "Southwestern Virginia is a part of Virginia that often doesn't get a fair shake from Richmond. I'll work with anyone to make sure everyone gets a fair shot."

"Another earmark of the rural strategy Warner used seven years ago to win over people who had usually favored" GOPers in the '90s "were also there: a bluegrass band, Wires and Wood, played a toe-tapping ballad to Warner that became a campaign standard for Warner" in GOV'01 (Lewis, AP, 5/4).

Back To The Brass

Warner "cranked up his campaign" 5/5 "before exuberant crowds in Norfolk and across the state, calling for a gradual withdrawal of troops from Iraq, energy independence and bipartisan cooperation in Washington." He "barnstormed" in VA's "four largest population centers amid brass bands, high-profile endorsements and only cursory clues about how he plans to accomplish his lofty policy goals."

"At each stop, Warner delivered the same speech." Warner: "If there ever was a time to bring fresh thinking and Virginia-style politics to Washington, it is now" (Fiske, Norfolk Virginian-Pilot, 5/6).

Warner "ratcheted up his campaign" 5/5, "promising a gradual exit from Iraq and battling expectations supporters and political professionals called unrealistic."

"Breaking with both" pres. Dems, "Warner called for a withdrawal plan from Iraq that was incremental and without a timetable." (Obama and Clinton "want to set a date for withdrawal of American ground troops from Iraq.") "Without elaborating," Warner "said the pace of the withdrawal 'depends on how things are on the ground.'"

"He also faulted the Bush administration for failing to force Iraq to take a greater share in its own defense and reconstruction." Warner: "Americans are spending $11 billion to $12 billion a month (in Iraq) while Iraq is sitting on $70 billion worth of oil profits."

"Warner's refusal to commit to a specific date for withdrawal seemed to leave the crowd of about 350 in Norfolk uncertain of its response" (Lewis, AP, 5/5).

Trying To Bait And Tackle The Competition

Warner's "next local stop will be a [5/7] lunch at one of the Peninsula's conservative bastions: Vanasse Bait and Tackle shop in Hampton. The excursion across partisan lines runs parallel to Warner's vows to reach beyond partisan politics in the search for solutions."

"Meanwhile," Marshall "tried to woo some conservative votes" last p.m. "speaking before the York County Republican Women's Club. Marshall criticized big budget spending, touted his strong stance against abortion and his role in the lawsuit which dismantled the local transportation authority" in Feb.

Marshall: "I'm the only person in the race who has legislative experience. If you know the rules, you can run the place."

Also, the Gilmore camp characterized Warner "as a 'wealthy Northern Virginia liberal Democrat' who is worth [$200M] and out of touch with the average voter." Gilmore: "When Mark Warner says 'invest,' he's talking about taking more of your tax dollars and spending them. More taxes and bigger government is the wrong answer for what's happening to our economy" (Payne, Newport News Daily Press, 5/6).