From The Hotline Latest Edition for Thursday, May 1,2008

THE FIELD

There's A Gas Station, Pull Over

Thu. May 1, 2008


In a bid to "connect with blue-collar workers," Barack and Michelle Obama "teamed up" 4/30 for "a little kitchen table conversation about tax cuts," while Hillary Clinton "hitched a ride in a pickup truck to a gas pump to illustrate the pain inflicted on ordinary families by skyrocketing prices."

After pulling into an Indianapolis, IN, gas station with sheet metal worker Jason Wilfing, "who pumped regular unleaded," Clinton observed to reporters: "Sixty-three dollars for just about half a tank."

Meanwhile, Obama "said he and his wife understand the pressures facing working families." Obama: "Michelle and I grew up in a pretty modest situation." Describing herself as "a working mom," M. Obama said: "We are still so close to the lives most Americans are living." More: "Work isn't a choice. It never felt like a choice to me. Being a good mom, being a good wife, keeping your marriage together, these are the stresses people feel."

Sitting around a kitchen table "with the Fischers" and "Michelle serving ice tea and diet soda," the Fischers said they "are worried they'll be forced to move away from their three grown children if he loses his job." M. Obama: "I know it means so much to have your folks stay put. We live 10 minutes from my mom, who just retired, and there's nothing like having grandma right there."

The Obamas "were seeking links to working families to ease concerns raised by comments by" Rev. Jeremiah Wright. Obama pointed to "the fact that both of us come from modest backgrounds, that both of us saw our parents struggle." Obama: "We weren't born into wealth or fame or fortune, and Michelle didn't marry into wealth." When asked about Wright, Obama said: "The situation with Reverend Wright is difficult, I won't lie to you. We want to make sure this doesn't become a permanent distraction" (Fouhy/Glover, AP, 4/30).

More On The Vast Wright-Thing Conspiracy

Neutral superdelegate/OH Dem Chair Chris Redfern "said Mr. Obama's delay in responding to Mr. Wright might have hurt his standing with many voters" -- in particular, Reagan Dems "who live in places like Toledo." Redfern: "Now is not a time to parse statements, now is not a time to worry about what happened 10 or 15 years ago or whether Reverend Wright was a great pastor or spiritual adviser. Now is the time to turn your back on Reverend Wright." Meanwhile, Ex-Gov. Mario Cuomo (D-NY) said of Clinton: "She has handled this nicely and is well positioned for Indiana, which is important."

But Wright could be a none-factor if, said IA Dem/Obama supporter Gordon Fischer: "he wins North Carolina, particularly by a decent margin, and if he is successful or close in Indiana, I think that will go a long way to erasing any remaining doubt about him among superdelegates" (Healy, New York Times, 5/1).

CNN's Cafferty, on whether Wright will be relevant anymore: "Well nobody's interested in what this bitter, old, hateful human being has to say. He's not relevant to the debate about who's going to lead this country for the next four years. He doesn't have any solutions to any of the problems that this country faces. He's just a petulant, nasty, disappointed old man who doesn't have a job as a pastor anymore. He's now alienated the highest profile friend he's got in the world, Barack Obama, and he's left to give speeches to clowns like Marion Barry at the National Press Club. So who needs him? Just go away" ("Situation Room," 4/30).

Christian Science Monitor's Sabar reports, some see the "renunciation" of Wright by Obama as helping him "with the working-class white voters he has struggled to attract." But it could "soften" his support "among African-Americans, prompting some to stay home in the general election if it helps crystallize a picture of him as out of touch" (5/1).

Who's Buying

It may be "surprising," but Obama and Clinton "are now spending at almost an even clip on television advertising" in IN and NC. Each have been spending about $100K "a day" in IN this week, and Clinton's $135K daily advertising purchase in NC "actually exceeds" the $120K "that Obama is spending there this week." Campaign Media Analysis Group's Evan Tracey "said that the two states have a number of other competitive campaigns raging, and that may have limited the available space on TV for Obama to make full use of his financial edge by purchasing more air time." However, Obama "has been able to put his money advantage to use" by putting ads on the air "days ahead of Clinton in each state" (Mosk, "The Trail," WashingtonPost.com, 3/30).

Life Was So Much Better In Madison

Two months ago, Obama won WI by 17%, "taking almost every demographic group and subgroup." Now, he needs a win of WI-esque margins in IN to "end the campaign in his favor." But "that's not likely to happen" because WI "may have been the last time Obama could take so much support from voters inclined to support Clinton." If Obama wants the nod, "he'll have to find a way to win those voters back" (Madden, Salon, 5/1).

Can You Hear Me Now?

Bloomberg's Jensen writes, on the stump, Clinton's "most reliable applause line" is about ending No Child Left Behind; Obama "often spends more time on taxes than Iraq" and both "routinely praise" John McCain. However, "voters may not have that view" of the campaign because "news reports focus on the latest sniping" between the Dems or "how either of them is going after McCain." Northeastern Univ. prof. Alan Schroeder: "Issues get obscured behind trivial story lines that have little relevance to voters' lives. The campaigns are staged and covered as a sort of never-ending reality show" (5/1).

This Guy's In Charge?

Dem Chair Howard Dean "likens" DC to "middle school on steroids." Dean: "There's an enormous amount of attention paid to who went to what dinner and who sat next to who and who was in the paper and who wasn't. It's not a world I'm accustomed to." This from the man who is "overseeing the party's brutal nominating contest while laying the groundwork for the fall race against" the GOPers. On the primary battle, Dean said: "I'm now in the position of trying to be a unifying force."

His effectiveness in that role is questionable as criticism of Dean is growing. Dem Sec. Alice Germond: "Some may feel he's not paying as much attention to the folks here in D.C. as they would like. The fact he's not well-known at Washington's watering holes may give rise to some of the sniping, which is perhaps unfair." Anonymous Dem strategist: "He doesn't have the long-term relationships or the clout in Washington that might have allowed him to negotiate a compromise."

Fundraising by the DNC is also a concern for Dems. The DNC has raised about $73M for '08, compared with more than $123M for the RNC. And "more worrisome" to many Dems is the CoH: $5M for the DNC versus $31M for the RNC. If it had more money, the DNC could use it to "soften up" McCain, while Clinton and Obama "are busy throttling each other." Where has the money gone? Dean's "50-state strategy," which has "poured tens of millions of dollars into the state parties" (Barabak, Los Angeles Times, 5/1).

Factor It In

Some prominent liberals "are wondering why" Clinton and Obama "agreed this week to sit down for interviews" on FNC. "Outfoxed" dir. Robert Greenwald: "I understand the need to reach out to different audiences. But this is a decision that will have virtually no gain for Democrats." One possible explanation: IN and is an open primary. Plus, said ex-CA Dem political dir. Sam Rodriguez, "Most of North Carolina is full of conservative Democrats. And they watch Fox. Same goes for Indiana. They're talking to conservative Democrats in these states -- conservative Democrats who vote" (Garofoli, San Francisco Chronicle, 5/1).

Who's Tending The Farm?

Jimmy Carter appeared on the "Situation Room" last night to talk about the Dem race.

CNN's Blitzer: "What if Hillary Clinton gets the nomination because of the superdelegates, not because of the pledged delegates? Don't you think that Obama's supporters, whether young people, African-Americans, will see that as stealing the nomination, in effect?"

Carter: "I think a lot of those people that you just mentioned who have not ordinarily been deeply involved in the political campaign might very well refrain from going to the polls. I don't think they are going to go out and vote for John McCain, but I think they might very well not be enthusiastic if that should happen."

Blitzer: "Because it looks almost certainly as, irrespective of what happens in the remaining nine contests, that Barack Obama will emerge with the most pledged delegates, the super-delegates that will be the decisive factor."

Carter: "That's true. But, you know, the Democratic primary and the Republican primary both is set up to deal with delegates, not popular votes, not the number of states you carry and that sort of thing; it's just delegates only. And so, it would be very, I think, uncomfortable to see the superdelegates go contrary to the way that Democratic voters [have gone]."

Blitzer: "What, in your opinion, would be more important as a superdelegate: who has the most pledged or elected delegates, or who has more of the popular vote in all of these 50-plus contests?"

Carter: "The pledged delegates, because that's a whole rule. I mean, there's no rule at all that says the popular vote gets the nomination. The rules of the Democratic Party and the Republican Party only refer to the delegates" (CNN, 4/30).

How To Decide

Rep. James Clyburn (D-SC), asked whether the candidate with the most pledged delegates should be the Dem nominee: "Not necessarily. Anything might happen between now and the end of this process. And that ought to dictate whatever the ingredients in decision-making ought to be pledged delegates, popular vote, number of victories won, number of states won, as well as what is being demonstrated in the surveys that are being taken as to who will help us be the best candidate going into November. So it should not be any one indicator here" ("Situation Room," CNN, 4/30).