From The Hotline Latest Edition for Wednesday, April 30,2008

Raleigh-ing Her Base

Wed. Apr. 30, 2008


No doubt about it, HRC’s odds remain long in NC. But have this week’s events created her first real opening in the Tar Heel State?

Easley’s no Rendell or Strickland. And his late endorsement is likely to be less beneficial to Clinton. but he’s popular w/white working-class Dems, and many say he wouldn’t have endorsed a candidate he thought was headed for defeat. Meanwhile, E. Edwards continues to dangle the possibility of a pre-5/6 endorsement. Then, of course, there’s Jeremiah Wright, which may threaten Obama’s efforts to broaden his appeal among white voters.

HRC’s ability to win here depends not on how poorly Obama does w/white voters, but how well she does w/black voters. And little attention has been given to the impact Obama-Wright may have on black turnout.

Can Obama do worse among whites in NC than he did in MS, where he took just 26%? The white vote will be bigger in NC than it was in MS (60% vs. 50%). But if he still wins black voters by 92%, he’d win w/52%. For either candidate to claim a breakthrough in the current demographic stalemate, those numbers have to change.

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