From The Hotline Latest Edition for Wednesday, April 30,2008

THE FIELD

Pitching For Gas

Wed. Apr. 30, 2008


Across IN and NC 4/29, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton "engaged in long-distance sparring on fuel taxes," which is "spotlighting" one of their "relatively few policy differences." Clinton continued her focus "on a proposal for a summer fuel tax holiday that she would pay for with a windfall profits tax on the soaring earnings of international oil companies." Clinton: "The oil companies keep making out like bandits." More: "There are a lot of people in Indiana who would benefit from a gas tax holiday." Invoking John McCain, Clinton said: "Sen. Obama won't provide relief, while Sen. McCain won't pay for it."

Meanwhile, Obama "dismissed" Clinton's plan. Obama: "This isn't an idea designed to get you through the summer, it's designed to get them through an election." Obama "said that the only real relief from higher fuel costs would come through longer term steps toward energy independence, which he and Mrs. Clinton have offered in broadly similar terms." Obama: "What we're talking about now is a Washington con game, and I think the American people are smarter than Washington and will see right through it" (O'Toole, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, 4/30).

It's Not About The Money

While "Obama is poised once again to dramatically outspend" Clinton, "the imbalance may not matter." Pollster Ann Selzer: "What matters is whether or not you have the right message." Obama had nearly $43M on hand for the primaries at the beginning of 4/08, while Clinton had about $9M, but Clinton had $10.3M in debt while Obama had "virtually none." Journal of Politics editor John Geer: "All the advertising was probably a bigger advantage three months ago, when they were still trying to establish themselves." NC State Univ. prof Craig Allen Smith: "It's not the ads, it's what you say" (Lightman, McClatchy Newspapers, 4/30).

I'll Be Out Of Town

John Edwards "is vacationing at Walt Disney World in Florida this week," which is "fueling speculation that he's not going to endorse" either Dem before the 5/6 NC primary. Then again, "another vacation turned out differently." In 7/04, "Edwards took his family to Disney World for a vacation, leading many to declare he was not John Kerry's" VP pick. But as it turned out, "Edwards had slipped away, catching a flight" to DC to meet with Kerry (Beckwith/Ferreri, "Under the Dome," Raleigh News & Observer, 4/30).

MSNBC's Olbermann: "[Elizabeth Edwards] said in theory today that things could change in the next week and there might be an endorsement. But that's really unlikely to happen. But if there's going to be an endorsement at any point by either of them, is this not the time to do it because, is there not a shelf life problem with an Edwards' endorsement after North Carolina votes?"

Washington Post's Dionne: "Well, not if endorsements from major people like the ones you mentioned, Al Gore, John Edwards and others could send a signal toward the end of the process that it's time for somebody to go, to use Al Gore's old phrase about the first President Bush. You know, and that it's not clear how much an Edwards' endorsement, how many vote can he swing in North Carolina. He hasn't been in office in awhile. I'm sure he could swing some. But it would probably be more powerful as part of the unified effort to shut it down at the end" ("Countdown," MSNBC, 4/29).

Jimmy-O

In an interview with the Daily Telegraph's Harnden, Jimmy Carter "did not formally endorse" Obama but he made it "crystal clear where his sympathies lie." Carter also said that the battle for the nod should stop in 6/08, adding: "I don't see any reason at all to continue after June 3rd when we know who got the most [pledged] delegates, who got the most popular votes, who won the most states and so forth."

On whether the superdelegates could give the nod to Clinton, Carter said: "It would be undemocratic if the super-delegates blatantly went against the decision of Democratic voters across the nation. And I think that many super-delegates who have not yet declared their preference have the same feeling that I do, including the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi. She's said over and over that whoever gets the most [pledged] delegates by June 3rd ought to be the nominee."

Carter also "mused openly about how Mr Obama might harness this feeling in an inaugural address." Carter: "If the first statement he made was while I'm president of the United States we will never torture another prisoner and while I'm President of the United States we will never go to war unless our own security is directly threatened...it would transform the image of the United States in the minds of many people around the world" (4/30).

Carter continued the TV rounds last night, appearing on the "Situation Room."

CNN's Blitzer: "You already know in your mind, because I assume you voted in the primary in Georgia, right?"

Carter: "Yes, I voted in the primary in Georgia."

Blitzer: "So you know which candidate you prefer?"

Carter: "If I don't change my mind, yes" (CNN, 4/29).

Carter also played "Hardball."

Carter, on whether the Dem party will be able to unify after a nominee is chosen: "After the primaries are over and we see who the clear leader is, then the superdelegates will probably go along with that, unless it's an extreme case, and the loser will endorse, and their supporters will support the winner. ... I think there may be one exception to that. And that is a lot of the young people, and maybe the African-American people, that have come in for the first time to participate enthusiastically in a campaign, may not be enthusiastic if their candidate loses. But that would be the only exception. And that's a minor percentage of the total votes" (MSNBC, 4/29).

Iraq Part III

On the war in Iraq, differences between Obama and Clinton "on extricating troops are miniscule." The greatest point of contention is about the past: "who did or didn't support the war, nearly seven years ago." But in the general, "Iraq will be important again." On Iraq coming up in the general, Dem strategist Bob Shrum said: "We ought to debate it. We will debate it. There is no more important issue for a president than the issue of war and peace. It's the inescapable issue."

In the general, the Dem nominee "will be able to talk about bringing the troops home, but will also have to explain why Iraqi political progress will be facilitated by less security; why the prospect of a greater number of Iraqi civilian deaths is acceptable; and why, at least if the candidates are to be taken at their word, the realities on the ground in Baghdad, Basra and Sadr City will have little bearing on their withdrawal policies." It's possible by 11/08 that "Iraq could be fighting a formal civil war." Hence, the consensus even in the Dem-leaning foreign policy establishment is "that the Obama and Clinton withdrawal plans need to be taken with a fairly major grain of salt" (Horowitz, New York Observer, 4/29).

Whites Out?

Washington Post's Meyerson writes, the relationship between Obama and the white working class "is beginning to resemble that between Ahab and the white whale." In state after state, "Obama sets out to reel in his working-class quarry, and, in state after state, it eludes him." If he ends up with the nod, many Dems "fear" that come 11/08, "working-class whites will pull Obama and their party down to defeat."

The real problem for Dems "is that American employers have waged a hugely successful campaign against unions for the past 35 years. Union membership has declined from 35% of the workforce in the mid-'50s to 12% today. While Obama "may prove a tough sell to some of these voters," Working America will surely be the Dems' "best shot at landing their white whale" (4/30).

Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel's Gilbert asks: will large numbers of white Dems "abandon the party" if Obama is the nominee? "The answer was yes" in PA, "where nearly one-third of white voters" in the Dem primary "said they would not support Obama against" McCain. Still, many experts "are skeptical" of such "partisan defections" happening on that scale in the general. Gallup pollster Frank Newport: "Even common sense tells us by the time the fall comes around and the focus is on the Republican (opponent), some of these Democrats will come home to roost."

Still, there's going to be some defections. In '04, when 11% of Dems voted for President Bush and 6% of GOPers voted for John Kerry. American University prof. Brian Schaffner said if the Clinton-Obama marathon ends with one candidate's supporters embittered, and feeling the process and outcome were grossly unfair, then "that could take divisiveness to whole new levels" (4/29).