From The Hotline Latest Edition for Tuesday, April 29,2008

Perception Deception

Tue. Apr. 29, 2008


The latest AP/Ipsos poll suggests that Obama's bad week has taken its toll. In match-ups with McCain, Obama has stalled while HRC has surged ahead. More important, HRC now does better among indies than Obama. Does this suggest a break in their long-running stalemate? A sign that Obama’s base can be breached?

At the same time, state polling in key swing states like IA and WI show Obama in a stronger position than HRC in match-ups w/ McCain.

So, which is the more important? And, can either tell us which candidate is more electable?

Pollsters will tell you that nat'l polls are good at measuring trends while state polls are better for looking at horse-race match-ups. This, of course, leaves us right back where we started – a debate over the metrics of electability. And, it’s not likely that IN or NC results will change that.

Meanwhile, the AP poll also showed that McCain’s empathy tour has yet to have much of an impact. Just 36% of voters think he understands their problems. But, note that his health-care tour is making stops in key electoral vote states like FL, CO and OH. It may be state polls, then, where we should look for the first signs of change in voter perception.

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