From The Hotline Latest Edition for Tuesday, April 29,2008

SUPERDELEGATES

The New Establishment Candidate?

Tue. Apr. 29, 2008


"Despite his loss" in PA "and other campaign bumps," Barack Obama "is heavily favored to win what will be the final and decisive contest" for the Dem nod -- "the 'invisible primary' for the convention votes of party leaders."

Obama "has taken the lead among elected officials." Dems in both camps "say that for many, these superdelegates' decisions to endorse someone -- or stay uncommitted -- reflect their answer to the question: What is best for my political future?"

On the other hand, unelected state and party officials "say that for most the bigger question is this: Who has the best chance of winning the White House?" Hillary Clinton "still leads by double digits among [these] officials, but her edge has been narrowing." ("Many have known" Clinton and her husband since the couple's WH years, "or worked for them then.")

Many elected officials see Obama as better able to defeat John McCain. "But even those who don't have been impressed by his grass-roots organizing and fund raising and the legions of new voters he has attracted, particularly younger and African-American voters."

The politicians -- especially Dems with significant black constituents or college campuses in their districts -- "see benefit for themselves in these new voters. By contrast," many foresee Clinton "alienating some general-election voters."

The Clinton camp is "counting on" unelected officials "to be fertile ground to sow doubts" about Obama's electability, "citing his weaker showings in big states and among working-class whites, seniors and Roman Catholics."

But the Obama camp "just announced a 50-state voter mobilization. That reflects another pitch to nonelected party officials: That Obama would work to build the party even in [GOP] 'red' states, and has the money to do it," while Clinton "focuses only" on Dem "'blue' states and battlegrounds" such as OH.

"Interviews with party officials suggest this appeal has effectively exploited lingering resentments that the DNC," under Bill Clinton, "abandoned the red states." Pro-Obama superdelegate/NE Dem Chair Steve Achepohl: "Obama has made it absolutely clear he's committed to the 50-state strategy, and the Clintons obviously aren't. That's a major factor for all the party people in smaller states" (Calmes, Wall Street Journal, 4/29).

Race To The White House

Philadelphia Inquirer's Polman writes, "This is a very sensitive issue, but it needs to be discussed. When the unpledged superdelegates finally look hard at the electability factor, they will be compelled to judge whether [Obama] would be a risky nominee because of his race."

"In the end, this may not be a deal breaker. But right now it can hardly be ignored..." (4/29).

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