From The Hotline Latest Edition for Friday, April 25,2008

INDIANA (5/6 PRIMARY)

'Cross The Muddy Ohio

Fri. Apr. 25, 2008


Voter registration "has shot up" in IN by some 160K since 1/08. Election officials expect the record for Dem ballots cast in a presidential primary "to shatter" the current record.

That "may play" in Barack Obama's favor, especially among independents, a strong base for him in other states, because IN has an open primary. Obama's camp "has been intensely focused" on new voter registration ever since his staff arrived in 3/08. But if Obama is to carry IN, he'll "have to reach deep" into Hillary Clinton territory - rural voters and white working-class communities, like those along the Ohio River. State Sen. Earline Rogers (D): "Democrats in some of those areas are very close to the Clinton legacy and they have very good feelings toward Clinton."

Obama outspent Clinton 4 to 1 on IN TV ads through 4/08, dropping $1.6M to Clinton's $400K. Clinton has the edge among the state's superdelegates. Sen. Evan Bayh (D) and 4 others have endorsed Clinton. Obama is "touting" his work with Sen. Richard Lugar (R) on the Senate Foreign Relations Cmte; one TV ad "shows them together" as the announcer describes Obama as a leader on arms control. Obama expects to do well with black voters in the industrial cities along Lake Michigan. He also expects strong showings in Indianapolis and its burgeoning suburbs and Bloomington. Those areas "typically account for" more than 40% of statewide Dem vote. Clinton "could do well" in the blue-collar factory towns throughout the state's northern half, many of which have been hit hard by job losses (Davies, AP, 4/24).

More On The Debate Debate

Obama spokesperson Nick Kimball said Obama "hasn't closed the door" on a debate in IN, but it's not his top priority. Bayh said 4/24 that almost every other significant state "has had a debate, and 'we in Indiana don't want to be treated like second-class citizens.'" Kimball "said Hoosiers 'want a chance to question the candidates themselves... I don't think they're going to get too concerned about whether or not some debate moderators will help them make the best decision." Bayh: "A lot of people in Indiana don't follow politics on a day-to-day basis. They're focusing now. Having that kind of debate will help them make the best decision" (Smith, Ft. Wayne Journal Gazette, 4/25).

Looks Good On Paper

To win IN, taking the northwest region - the 5 counties nearest Chicago- "is critical." There are more votes here than any region in the state, excluding Indianapolis. On paper, this region "looks as if it would favor" Obama- but there are obstacles here for both candidates, including "mastering the challenges" of an area with a large proportion of black and Latino voters and a heavy union presence. In CD 1, about 18% of voters are black, compared with 8% statewide. Gary, whose mayor endorsed Obama, is 84% black. Northwestern IN also has significant numbers of Hispanics, who make up 10% of CD 1 vs. 3% statewide. In previous primaries, Hispanic voters mostly backed Clinton. Labor unions "add another twist." The teachers union in Hammond broke with its national union to endorse Obama (Moore, USA Today, 4/23).