From The Hotline Latest Edition for Friday, April 25,2008

THE FIELD

Those Darn Kids

Fri. Apr. 25, 2008


Despite all the "crowing" over the turnout of young voters, those over 60 "are still a much more reliable voting bloc, and they don't need to get a text message to remind them to go to the polls." Univ. of MN prof. Lawrence Jacobs: "The battle over the senior vote will be one of the most intense in the fall because they do come out and vote." More: "The new is always more interesting, and the new story is about the increase of younger voters, which is very impressive. But any campaign that relies heavily on younger voters is running a risk. Younger voters are a difficult lover to have. They're a voting bloc that can betray you and is often quite whimsical. The nastiness that occurs in a campaign is something that could turn young voters off." On the other hand, old voters "having seen negativity for decades, aren't as likely to not vote when a campaign's tone gets harsh." And perhaps troubling for Obama, "voters of vintage vastly preferred Clinton" in a recent Pew Research survey (Garofoli, San Francisco Chronicle, 4/25).

This Will All Be Over Soon

Dayton Daily News' Gottlieb writes, "divisions in a party that is trying to take back the presidency simply do not affect the outcomes of elections." Polls taken now have Dems saying that "they wouldn't vote for the other in the general election," but that doesn't mean that the Dems are "hurting themselves." Back in '92, Ross Perot (I) was leading in the polls in June, by 8 points. In '88, Michael Dukakis (D) was ahead by 17 points in July. The success of Obama and Clinton in the primaries "suggests that their particular demographic characteristics are not unacceptable to the American mainstream today." People who are "fretting" about their poll numbers now "are taking their eye off the ball" (4/25).