From The Hotline Latest Edition for Friday, April 25,2008

SUPERDELEGATES

Smoke 'Em Outta Their Malaise!

Fri. Apr. 25, 2008


Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid told reporters 4/24 "that he may send a letter to superdelegates encouraging them to declare their support" by 7/1. Reid: "I've said for weeks the matter will be over by June or July 1, and I still believe that's the case."

Reid "did not disclose details of what the letter might look like or how soon one could be drafted. ... When asked whether he planned to make public his allegiance to either candidate, Reid deflected, saying only that he may try to encourage outstanding superdelegates to choose."

Referring to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and DNC Chair Howard Dean, Reid said "'the three of us may do a joint letter' to try to smoke those undecided [Dems] out" (Taylor, Roll Call, 4/24).

Don't Be So Bitter, Dems

New York Review Of Books's Elizabeth Drew reports, "Notwithstanding the plentiful commentary to the effect that" the PA primary "must have shaken superdelegates planning to support" Barack Obama, "key" Dems are "unbudged." A "leading" House Dem: "I don't think anyone's shaken."

The "critical mass" of Dem congressmen "that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right remains prepared to do so. Their reasons, ones they have held for months, have not changed -- and by their very nature are unlikely to. Essentially, they are three:"

1) Hillary Clinton "is such a polarizing figure that everyone who ever considered voting" GOP in Nov., "and even many who never did, will go to the polls to vote against her, thus jeopardizing" Dems "down the ticket."

2) "To take the nomination away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the [Dems'] black base." One "leading" Dem: "The superdelegates are not going to switch their votes and jeopardize the future of the Democratic Party for generations."

Such a move "would also disillusion the new, mostly young, voters who have entered into politics for the first time because of Obama, and lose the votes of independents who could make the critical difference" in Nov.

3) "Because the black vote can make the decisive difference in numerous congressional districts, discarding Obama could cost" the Dems "numerous seats."

One Dem leader: "If we overrule the elected delegates there would be mayhem." Clinton's claim "that she has, or will have, won the popular vote does not impress them -- both because of her dubious math and because, as another key Dem says firmly, 'The rules are that it's the delegates, period.'"

Furthermore, the congressional Dem leaders "don't draw the same conclusion" from PA "and also earlier contests that many observers think they do: that Obama's candidacy is fatally flawed because he has as yet been largely unable to win the votes of working class whites."

"They point out something that has been largely overlooked in all the talk" –- the OH and PA primaries were closed primaries." One "key" congressional Dem: "Yes, he doesn't do really well with a big part of the Democratic base, but she doesn't do well with independents, who will be critical to success in November."

So, the fact that Clinton "has shown herself to be a remarkably resilient, tough campaigner, an attribute that the Clintons hope will carry much importance, this Democrat says, 'is irrelevant.'"

"As for the Wright matter," a key Dem on Capitol Hill: "Though it makes [Obama's colleagues] a little nervous, it's not enough to change their minds." Moreover, "the Wright matter may be old news come the general election" (Politico, 4/25).