From The Hotline Latest Edition for Friday, April 25,2008

THE FIELD

The Waiting Is The Hardest Part

Fri. Apr. 25, 2008


While Barack Obama spent "a day off in his hometown" 4/24, Hillary Clinton was in NC where she tried again "to link voting for Bush" in '00 to "the idea of backing an untested candidate in this election" -- "invoking Obama without mentioning him." Clinton: "We cannot have a leap of faith or any guesswork in this election." More: "A lot of people voted for President Bush the first time because he said he was something called a compassionate conservative. That sounded good -- nobody knew what it meant -- but it sounded great" (Glover, AP, 4/25).

Nightmare On Pennsylvania Avenue Two

Speaker Nancy Pelosi was on "LKL" last night, where she was asked about WH '08.

Pelosi, asked if she will endorse: "I'm the chair of the convention. And, as such, I think it's important to remain neutral. And, again, as speaker of the House, as well, I have many members who are still undeclared. And I want them to make their own decisions about the race."

On DNC Chair Howard Dean wanting superdelegates to make their choice before July: "I think it would be constructive. ... I don't want a brokered convention. ... I don't think that's enough time to bring everyone together. I do think that the campaigns have to work their way through this, that we should have all the elections, let the people speak and then we'll find out who our nominee is."

CNN's L. King: "If you had your power, would you want [Clinton and Obama] to run together?"

Pelosi: "No. ... I don't think it's a good idea. ... First of all, the candidates -- whoever he or she may be -- should choose his or her own vice presidential candidate. I think that's appropriate. That's where you would see the comfort level on not only how to run, but how to govern the country. And there's plenty of talent to go around to draw upon for a good strong ticket. I'm not one of those who thinks that that's a good ticket" (CNN, 4/24).

The People United

Philadelphia Daily News' Smith writes, being a Dem "is like traveling cross-country by bus" because you "end up riding with people who eat fried chicken out of greasy bags, women with wailing infants, old folks who smell like liniment, college kids whose rap or rock you can hear clearly even through the headsets they clamp tightly to their heads." And no matter who wins the nod, or how he or she wins it, "the other candidate should be ready to campaign for the winner. They have to be ready to get their people back on the bus." If they don't, "Denver will be the end of the line for all of them" (4/25).

The Clinton Chronicles

Washington Post's Robinson writes, "I know it's inappropriate to compare a talented and accomplished woman such as Hillary Clinton with a homicidal cyborg from the future. But it's hard to come up with a better image for the woman's sheer relentlessness." Until the votes are counted in IN and NC on 5/6, "there's not much anyone can do to stop" the race "except the candidates themselves." Still, it will have to before it's too late: "Fighting hard for the nomination is understandable, but fighting in such a way as to give the presidency to McCain is unforgivable" (4/25).

Show Some Grit, Man

Washington Post's Dionne writes, Obama has "succeeded in beating back racial stereotypes by presenting himself as a cerebral and unifying figure who disdains confrontation and heated rhetoric." But many blue-collar Catholic voters "are skeptical of his transformative oratory and cool personality." Anonymous Dem: "They want to see some fight, some grit and some specifics." In grappling with his difficulties among Catholic voters, "Obama may find a way to ease the burdens of race" (4/25).

Stop All This Worrying, It's Obama

Elizabeth Drew writes in Politico, Dems on Capitol Hill are "unbudged" in their support for Obama. There is still a "critical mass" of Dem congressmen "that has been prepared to endorse Obama when the timing seemed right." Their reasons:

•Clinton "is such a polarizing figure" that she would be "jeopardizing" down ticket Dems.

•To take the nod "away from Obama when he is leading in the elected delegate count would deeply alienate the black base."

•And finally: because the black vote "can make the decisive difference in numerous" CDs in '08, "discarding Obama could cost" the Dems "numerous seats."

Regarding Clinton's continued candidacy, a leading Dem said: "Sometime in June we will make it clear to her that this thing isn't going to the convention" (4/25).

More On Why It's Going To Be Obama

It is "very unlikely that Clinton will win" the nod. Party leaders "aren't going to want to give Obama supporters -- especially African Americans, younger voters and the new people his candidacy has attracted to the party -- the bum's rush in favor of Clinton" ("The Horserace," CBSNews.com, 4/24).

Show Me The Mo-mentum

The Dem race is now a case of "math versus momentum." On Clinton's side is the momentum after her PA win, and on Obama's it's the delegate math that show's him maintaining his lead. Dem consultant Tad Devine "predicted that the superdelegates will not shun" Obama. Devine: "I don't think people are going to think they're nominating someone who is a loser, but someone who has a lot more growth potential. He just needs to go out and do what he has to do and win this nomination" (Barnes, National Journal, 4/26 issue).

No, No, It's Going To Be Clinton

Dem strategist Douglas Schoen writes in the Newark Star-Ledger, Dems "intent on winning" in 11/08 "would be foolish not to consider the strengths that Clinton has demonstrated in must-win swing states such as" FL, OH and PA. Blue-collar voters "favor her," FL's "favors her," and moreover: Catholic voters "say they'd defect to John McCain in significant numbers if Obama were to" win the nod. Whatever the outcome, "the winner should offer the loser" the VP slot: "Pary unity demands it" (4/25).

Triple By-Line

Dem "bigwigs are preparing to push superdelegates to get off the fence once" the primaries are over in 5/08. Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), Pelosi and Dean "might pen a joint letter to the party insiders." Reid: "The three of us, we may write a joint letter. We might do individual letters" (Earle, New York Post, 4/25).

Fact Check That

A spat has broken out in the blogosphere over whether the Clinton camp's "claims to have raised" $10M since 4/22 are "inflated." Without direct access to the Clinton fund-raising spreadsheets, "it is impossible to adjudicate this dispute." But what about past claims, such as the $4M "allegedly" raised by the Clinton camp the day after 2/5?

The bottom line: "the FEC reporting system makes it virtually impossible to tell if a campaign is telling the truth in its daily fund-raising claims." There are "no audited daily figures available to the public, either contemporaneously or later after the campaigns have filed their FEC statements" (Dobbs, "The Fact Checker," WashingtonPost.com, 4/25).

Creaking From The Old Man Of The Mountain

For some voters in NH, "the months of campaigning since" the NH primary "have only served to cement their political leanings." Before the NH primary, Clinton supporter John Melin (D) said he would "have been more willing to support and work for Barack Obama than I am now." More Melin: "I've gotten kind of tired of his rhetoric. I thought it was rather pretty in January, and now I think it's rather tedious" (Liebowitz, Concord Monitor, 4/25).

The Bad News First

The bad news for Clinton and Obama "is that people are actually listening to their candidates' negative ads, and the big losers are their fellow" Dems, "who eventually will have to run one of these battered candidates for president" (Shribman, New York Sun, 4/25).

One Of These Is Not Like The Other

At a forum sponsored by the National Federation of Independent Business 4/24, surrogates for Obama and Clinton "acknowledged" that the candidates "advocate similar measures to reduce the cost of healthcare services." Clinton adviser Katherine Hayes: "If you look at the actual proposals that are out there to do cost-containment in our healthcare system, I think they're very, very similar." The main "difference" between the two "is that Clinton would 'mandate' that everyone (with limited exceptions) buy health insurance, which Obama calls inessential and punitive to people with low incomes" (Young, The Hill, 4/24).

New Money

The public campaign financing system for the primaries, which provides candidates' matching funds, may be relegated "to the political Ice Age" because of the Internet fundraising success of Obama and others. Dem consultant Steve Murphy: "The matching-fund system as currently structured is dead." Murphy "predicted that candidates will increasingly opt out" of the matching system "because of the limits on campaign spending" (Barnes, National Journal, 4/26 issue).

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