From The Hotline Latest Edition for Friday, April 18,2008

TEXAS

Watchful Waiting

Fri. Apr. 18, 2008


Austin American-Statesman's Selby writes: "I wonder if" state Rep. Rick Noriega (D) "would have benefited by not winning outright" in the 3/4 primary. In a runoff, "he would have had the state's political spotlight almost to himself, though it would have drained resources. As it was, Noriega was overshadowed" by the WH primary. Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy: "Given how poor the national political climate is for Republicans, it's hard to completely write off any Democrat." Still, she says, "this is an uphill climb. It is notoriously difficult for candidates of either party to get well-known in a state with 19 media markets, 32 congressional districts and at least 7.4 million general election voters."

Duffy notes Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) "spent $5.7 million in her barely contested race in 2006, and Cornyn spent about $10 million in 2002, and he had already been elected statewide. (Sen. John Cornyn's (poll) numbers aren't stellar ... but he will be tough to beat. ... What national Democrats want to see is how much money he (Noriega) can raise. They have no intention of pouring money into the state if Noriega can't raise a fairly sizable chunk."

No Dem has won a TX SEN race since '88. "Maybe it's fair to speculate that Noriega is warming up to seek statewide office in 2010. Yet he has time to gain traction if he raises enough money and smartly defines himself while raising doubts about Cornyn. In a sign of optimism, or naivete, Noriega raised his post-primary fundraising goal" from $5M to $10M. "He's hired a fundraising chief who once corralled cash" for ex-Gov. Ann Richards (D). "He's also brought aboard a Web marketing firm credited with helping" Sen. James Webb (D-VA) win (4/17). Noriega manger Mark Bell: "Realistically, $10 million is our number, what we're working for. We're trying to be realistic with what we think it might possibly cost with media, (campaign) infrastructure and on the ground" outreach.

"The increased goal likely has Cornyn's campaign snickering -- or at least wondering how-in-hey a little-known challenger whose kitty held less than" $350K at the end of 3/31 can possibly rev fundraising so much so quickly. ActBlue says it's generated more than $500K for his campaign. "Could the site somehow multiply Noriega's contributions by 10 to 20 times more? It'd be national news if so" (statesman.com blog, 4/17)