Structural troubles. Everyone's got some. Obama can't get working-class whites on board - HRC can't win the delegate count. But what about McCain? Yesterday's special election in MS-01 may give us a preview of what kind of hurdles he'll face in Nov.
-- Dem Childers came w/in 410 votes of winning in a district that Bush carried by 35 pts. And he's considered the slight favorite to win the 5/13 run-off versus GOPer Greg Davis. If he does, and Dem Cazayoux carries LA-06 on 5/3, this would mean that combined w/their pick-up of IL-14, Dems will have won 3 special elections in CDs that Bush carried by an average of 59%.
-- When the GOP brand is this tainted, McCain's got a lot more to worry about than trying to catch up with the Dems' money haul. While Obama has yet to "seal the deal" among Dems, McCain's task to convince voters they should stick w/a GOPer (even one they like) is tougher.
-- Votes' perceptions of WH'08 also seem to be hardening, making it tough to change the terms of the debate. WH Dems spent millions in PA to end up w/OH's results. Will McCain be able to do any better this fall?
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