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Corzine's Second Wind Or Last Gasp? Corzine's Second Wind Or Last Gasp?

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Corzine's Second Wind Or Last Gasp?

Chris Christie may have been on his heels for the last few weeks, but two new NJ GOV polls show that it's done little to help Jon Corzine.

-- To be sure, Corzine has only begun to fight. His newest ad goes directly at Christie's controversial loan. Meanwhile, the DGA says NJ polling is missing 500K Obama "surge" Dems who'll give Corzine another 3 to 5 pts. Throw in the possibility Daggett siphons enough votes from Christie, and you could be looking at a Corzine squeaker.

 

-- But the new Q poll throws some cold water on these theories. First, voters who said they'd heard about Christie's loan are evenly divided on whether this is a fair attack. Meanwhile, 56% said trying to tie Christie to Bush via contracts he gave out as U.S. atty is unfair.

-- The fact that Obama's approval rating has dropped 9 pts to 51% also suggests that "energizing" those surge voters may be tough. Meanwhile, Daggett's taking more of his vote from Dems (7%) and indies (16%) than he is from GOPers (4%). This means that while Daggett is peeling off some of the anti-Corzine vote that could go to Christie, he's not taking enough of the "right" voters to help Corzine.

-- For Corzine, it seems, just going on the attack may not be enough. He needs Christie to collapse or Daggett to catch fire. Bush bashing and questionable loans might not be enough to push him over the top.

 

This article appears in the September 1, 2009 edition of Latest Edition.

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