Voters go to the polls today for the "third time in six weeks" to decide who'll represent them in Cong (Pettus, AP, 4/21). But a "crowded ballot and an expected low voter turnout" that'll be "amplified by voter fatigue" has several analysts predicting that "no candidate will secure" the 50% needed to avoid a 5/13 runoff. The "battle" is expected to "come down to" Southaven Mayor Greg Davis (R) and Prentiss Co. Chancery Clerk Travis Childers (D). Neither "appears to be the clear-cut favorite" in the race (McArdle, Roll Call, 4/22).
Dems "turned out twice as many" voters as did GOPers in the primary, which also featured the WH primary. In the runoff, Dems "edged" the GOP again. Davis "argues" that many GOPers who "crossed over" to vote in the Dem WH primary "weren't able to come back" to the GOP side for the runoff because election rules "forbade it." That "won't be the case" in the special.
For Davis, the "key" will be turning out his base -- DeSoto Co. He "points out" that Dem turnout "dropped" more than 80% between the primary and runoff. Davis: "That held in several other counties that are generally heavily Republican. You're looking at 5-6,000 votes just in one county, which more than closes the gap." Childers: "If they were that strong of Republicans, don't you think they would have voted in the Republican primary to vote for their congressional candidate?"
Notices "will be placed at polling places" to inform voters that the losing runoff candidates, ex-Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough (R) and state Rep. Steve Holland (D), who are on the special ballot, "are no longer candidates" (Blake, The Hill, 4/22).
To "ensure" the outcome, the NRCC spent "more than" $292K in IEs on the CD so far this year, with $150K of that coming from an ad placement purchased 4/16. By comparison, the DCCC "has dropped" $141K on the race (Roll Call, 4/22). Polls close at 8 pm ET.
A Senior Moment?
Even GOPers "acknowledge" that the race "appears to be close." They have "turned" to ads questioning "care at a nursing home owned" by Childers. State Sen. Alan Nunnelee: "It could go either way. People are frustrated with the aggressive campaign tactics that have been used, particularly on the Republican side. The Republican camp has been much more aggressive than people in northeast Mississippi are used to."
He's "sticking" with Davis, but ex-MS Econ. Council chair/ex-GOV candidate Jack Reed (R) will not. Reed is "supporting" Childers, citing "the personal appeal" of Childers and the "dissatisfaction with the Bush administration."
Nonpartisan special primary: 4/22; runoff: 5/13
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