Going Rogue

Scozzafava's split from the GOP in NY-23 has helped give Dems a talking point that they hope will carry them through '10: the GOP is in disarray and out of touch w/ indies. But what happens if Hoffman wins? A Siena poll out this a.m. shows him leading Owens by 5 pts.

-- The nat'l attention recently lavished on Hoffman is both a blessing and a curse. On one hand, the only reason he's a real contender is due to the outside cash funneled to his campaign. On the other hand, his "outsider" appeal was the key to his success as well. The nat'l media and nat'l GOP figures have turned Hoffman into the symbol of the power of the conservative wing of the party, but will that only turn off the indie voters who hold the key to this election?

-- The Siena poll shows indies are moving Owens' way. Since 10/31, Owens has moved 8 pts. among indies and now leads Hoffman among this group by 5 pts. At the same time, Owens hasn't united the Dem base around him - a big reason, of course, for Biden's last minute trip to the CD today. But while Biden is popular among the base (64%), among indies it's just 40%.

-- Meanwhile, one lesson we're sure to take from 11/3 is an enthusiasm gap advantage for the GOP. The party may have really low approval ratings, but if they're still winning races, does it matter?