Sweeping Change?

With just over 72 hrs to go until voters hit the polls in NJ, VA and NY-23, we're starting to detect the real possibility of a GOP sweep. A week ago, it looked like Dems could win 2 out of 3.

-- In VA GOV, the question isn't whether McDonnell will win, but by how much. A week ago, it looked like it'd be a 10-pt. race. Today, it's closer to 15 pts. or more. It also looks like the GOP will sweep down-ballot races, only helping to keep up GOP enthusiasm - and dim it for the Dems - in VA for '10.

-- A new Kos poll in NY-23 shows Hoffman well positioned going into 11/3. Not only is he picking up the GOPers who've abandoned Scozzafava, but he's also taking the lion's share of the indie vote that Owens was hoping to capture. Meanwhile, endorsements keep rolling in for Hoffman, including today's from Pataki. For his part, Owens has to hope Dems remain energized given that this CD, unlike NY-20, hasn't had any real grassroots Dem GOTV activity in years. There's no "Gillibrand" operation to kick-start.

-- NJ GOV, meanwhile, remains the toughest call. Traditionally, a GOPer has to go into Election Day a couple points ahead to make up for the superior Dem turn-out operation. Three of the 4 new polls today show the race tied. This year, however, the question is whether GOP enthusiasm will trump Dem GOTV efforts.