Will Hoffman Cross The Rubio-con?

Could a Hoffman win in NY-23 hurt Crist by making Rubio the next cause célèbre for conservatives?

-- The first question, of course, is whether Hoffman can really win. If he and Scozzafava split the GOP vote, it virtually guarantees Owens' election. A new indie front group - created by Hoffman backers - is addressing this issue w/a new ad detailing Dede's liberal positions on gay marriage, the stimulus and labor. If she pulls enough Dems and indie voters away from Owens, Hoffman can win.

-- But in swing CDs like this one, a GOPer can't win a two-way contest by just pulling the GOP base. They need to run more like Perot and less like Palin. Notice, for example, how well McDonnell is doing in VA among indie voters. Part of the reason for his success: His conscious decision to tone down the kind of rhetoric on issues that the base loves but make indies squirm.

-- Meanwhile, there's at least one place where the GOP doesn't seem concerned about wooing the middle: TX GOV. In an attempt to out-conservative each other, Perry and Hutchison have solicited and received the endorsements of the country's most polarizing GOPers - Palin and Cheney. Of course, it'll be interesting to see if he or she invites them back next fall.