The Ties That Bind

As the NY-23 special election winds to a frenetic finale, a new Research 2000/DailyKos poll confirms that atty Bill Owens (D) and accountant Doug Hoffman (R) are the ones to watch on 11/3. And their supporters are fighting hard to define the opposition.

-- Hoffman may be attacking Owens for his ties to Nancy Pelosi, but his friends have another target in mind. Even though Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) looks like she's fading, she'll still play a huge factor in the election. With that in mind, groups with ties to the Club for Growth have reportedly begun airing a TV ad praising Scozzafava for her "progressive" positions. This is important because Hoffman needs Scozzafava to siphon off moderate/liberal votes from Owens. So, while Hoffman needs Scozzafava to continue bleeding support, it's important that the support she loses is the base Republican vote, not the moderate/liberal vote that he wouldn't get anyway.

-- Meanwhile, as Dems fight to marginalize Hoffman, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has provided them with the perfect symbol to make their case. Palin is a lightning rod, and the DCCC is smart to use her to raise funds in the contest's closing days. Further on this theme, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen said today that NY-23 was a "microcosm" of the GOP's problems, stating that "extreme voices" are hijacking the party. This has been the nat'l storyline for weeks, but TV ads really haven't reflected this. We'll see if Dems use the closing days to further this message.