I'd Cap (& Trade) That

Senate Dems have more than just a tough vote on the public option to think about. Up next: cap & trade. Trying to sell members - and voters - on the long-term benefits of climate change legislation - cleaner air, more green jobs, etc. - is tough to do in the middle of a recession. Americans want to see some short-term gain first.

-- The latest WSJ/NBC poll showed just 48% support cap & trade, down 5 pts. from 4/09. For a preview of how this issue may play in '10, Dems only need to look down the road to VA GOV where McDonnell and the GOP have been savaging Deeds on the issue. And, Deeds came out against the House bill. In the latest WaPo poll, Deeds was losing downstate by 22 pts. That should send shivers down the spine of those House Dems who thought that opposing the bill would insulate them. Instead, they'll be painted w/the same broad brush as those who supported it.

-- Meanwhile, how many tough votes can Reid afford to ask from his most vulnerable members? Baucus, who knows a thing or two about getting a buy-in from moderates, raised a big red flag 10/27. And Specter, who's shifted left on a whole host of issues in recent months (the latest being DOMA), says he's worried about its impact on his coal-producing state.

-- Bottom line: Kerry, Boxer et al need to come back w/better comebacks to charges of "job losses" and "tax hikes" if they want to get moderates to get on board.