Can Win For Losing

Pres. Obama and VP Biden are squeezing fundraisers into their busy schedules today. While in OH, Biden will raise cash for 3 House Dems in formerly GOP-held CDs, while Obama is hosting a DCCC/DSCC fundraiser in FL. Obama's FL trip, notes CBS' Knoller, is his 26th fundraiser of '09; Bush had just six during his first year in office. Of course, at this point in '01, campaigning in any form was the farthest thing from anyone's mind.

-- The WH effort sends a signal to vulnerable Dems, esp. those looking over the abyss of a health-care vote, that they'll be rewarded for being a good team player. But will this soothe anxious Dems who are watching their VA GOV nominee getting outspent?

-- Obama and Biden have invested heavily in '09 Dems as well. And, it's likely Dems will go 2 for 3 (w/wins in NY-23 and NJ GOV). The problem, however, is that even Dem winners probably won't hit 50%. Corzine, an incumbent, will be lucky to hit 45%. Owens can win by just getting the Dem base (35-40%). Unlike these guys, most '10 candidates aren't going to be lucky enough to have serious 3rd party help next year.

-- If '09 Dems in VA, NJ and NY-23 end their night in the 40's, the Election Night message will be that while Dems may have won seats, the "anyone but the Dem" candidates were the real winners.