I'll Hoff, And I'll Puff...

With less than two weeks to go in the NY-23 special election, all signs surprisingly point to accountant Doug Hoffman (C) as the main challenger to atty Bill Owens (D), not Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R).

-- The DCCC clearly sees him as the threat, as they began attacking him yesterday for supporting "tax breaks for the wealthy at the expense of the middle class." Interestingly, Scozzafava also supports extending the Bush tax cuts, but there was no mention of her in the release.

-- But how does Hoffman win? First, he needs Scozzafava to continue to slide. Last week's Siena poll showed she lost six points in the two weeks between surveys, while Owens and Hoffman moved up. And considering the GOP support that Hoffman has been gaining the last few days (from ex-Maj. Leader Dick Armey to Michele Bachmann), to rumors that ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) may endorse him, it's not hard to see her support continuing to drop. As Scozzafava goes down, Hoffman's chances go up.

-- In this enviro, Hoffman's biggest asset is that he's an outsider, and Scozzafava isn't. Unfortunately for him, so is Owens. And right now, Owens has the clearest shot at a victory. The Dem base looks like it's around 35%, as that's what the party's '08 nominee got against Rep. John McHugh (R). Owens doesn't need much more than that to win a three-way race. Today's e-mail by Pres. Obama looks to be a start in helping to shore up this base.

-- Considering all of the angst the GOP has gone through in the whole Scozzafava/Hoffman split, it's interesting that the best chance they may have in this race is the self-described "conservative Republican" Hoffman.