Grin And Bera It

Many of the 3rdQ FEC reports were noteworthy more for the candidates who disappointed than for the ones who put up big numbers.

-- There are very few challengers who managed to string together successful back-to-back fundraising qtrs. And those that did -- CO-04's Cory Gardner (R), MD-01's Andy Harris (R) and CA-45's Steve Pougnet (D) -- have been on the nat'l scene for months.

-- But there are two exceptions, and neither are in a place that have been on many people's radar screens so far, especially considering the changing tides of the cycle. Physician Ami Bera (D), who is challenging Dan Lungren (R-CA 03) and businessman Jack McDonald (D), who's running against Michael McCaul (R-TX 10), both have proven with consecutive big hauls that they aren't just a blip on the radar screen.

-- Still, if this is indeed going to be a good year for GOPers, it's way too soon to write off any underperforming challenger. At this point in the '06 cycle, six Dems who eventually defeated GOPers weren't even in the race. Among the other 16 who ended up picking up seats, they were outraised by GOP incumbents by 76%. This cycle, vulnerable Dems outraised their GOP challengers by a smaller, but still significant, 24%.

-- It may be early, but some highly-touted GOPers who thought they'd be handed their party's nod may now have to kick it into high gear, or they may find themselves with a strong primary challenger.