Burnt Siena

There's little in today's Siena College poll that's encouraging for Assemb. DeDe Scozzafava (R), a poll that will undoubtedly embolden the forces that have aligned against her campaign.

-- Not only has atty Bill Owens (D) surged to a 33-29% lead, but Scozzafava has surrendered the plurality of support she enjoyed two weeks ago among indies and also lost a significant chunk of Dems. In a sense, she has lost the biggest argument of her campaign: that because she's a moderate GOPer, she's the most electable because she appeals to Dems and indies.

-- Meanwhile, the anti-Scozzafava factions now have what they've been seeking, a viable challenger on the right in accountant Doug Hoffman (C). He shot up seven points from the last poll, and now sits at 23%. It's going to be even harder for Scozzafava's allies to convince skeptics to get on board, now that Hoffman has proven himself a player and trails Scozzafava by just single-digits.

-- The deficit appears manageable for the GOPer, but a win now is going to be tough to pull off. While Scozzafava holds a lead in her home media market, she trails Owens in his, and comes in a distant third in the Syracuse media market, where she has barely run any TV ads. If she continues to have difficulty raising cash, she'll continue to cede the airwaves to her opponents, who are already doing a good job of defining her and pushing up her unfav. ratings.