I Hate To Be Such An Ag ...

When you consider the registration advantage Dems enjoy in CA, and the recent trendlines, GOPers look like they're out of their minds in targeting several members of the delegation. But they may have an ace up their sleeve, in at least one region.

-- We've seen stories crop up all over the Central Valley recently regarding the turmoil over Ag issues. But it hit home for us in a big way this weekend when Jim Costa (D-20) reported to the S.F. Chronicle that his farm-rich CD has a 35-45% unemployment rate, and Dems are getting the blame for farm subsidies that are "drying up" along with the water. Those factors weigh heavily in the loss of jobs. Water, or a lack of it, is a huge concern in the region, as enviros and farmers fight over water rights for fish versus farmers. Reps. Jerry McNerney (D-11) and Dennis Cardoza (D-18) face similar problems.

-- On the surface, these are nearly impossible CDs for GOPers to win, as Pres. Obama carried them by an average of 58% in '08. But the GOP has recruited interesting candidates against McNerney and Cardoza (Cardoza's challenger is an Irrigation District dir.), and George W. Bush did win the CDs with a 51% average in '04. If the landscape returns to its '04 levels here, some of these Dems could have difficult races on their hands.