"This Is When It Gets Hard"

When will we know Pres. Obama's honeymoon is over? When GOPers feel confident enough to run a TV ad in a swing district that links the new pres. to a vulnerable House Dem. That happened today in VA-05, where the NRCC is hitting freshman Rep. Tom Perriello (D) for backing Obama's energy bill.

-- Perriello's district is an interesting place for GOPers to revisit the strategy they first deployed (w/little success) in the MS-01 special last year. McCain carried VA-05, but only by 3 pts.; its African-American population (24%) is VA's third highest. And while the energy bill carries big risks (Perriello acknowledged that vulnerable Dems "are going to take a political hit" for backing it), the Obama-heavy spot seems more focused on linking Perriello to the president (and Pelosi) than to the controversial bill.

-- The NRCC chose to make this play at a time when Obama's poll numbers are starting to slide from the mid-60s to the high-50s. And while GOPers continue to stumble through their own weekly scandals/missteps, the outsized influence they're wielding in the health-care debate reveals a party with signs of life.

-- Is his honeymoon over? Obama seems to think so. "This is when it gets hard," he said 7/29 p.m. at a Dem fundraiser in Chicago. He hasn't crashed to earth yet. But from now on, he'll need more than '08 afterglow to carry his agenda across the finish line.