Don't Feel So Melancon-y

Although he hasn't confirmed reports that he's running for SEN, the stronger-by-the-day rumors surrounding Charlie Melancon (D) are particularly interesting since LA-03 would be the first tossup open seat race of the cycle.

-- In the 4 open Dem seats, Pres. Obama took an avg of 72%; in the nine open GOP seats so far, John McCain took 61%. Dems think they can play in Adam Putnam's (R-FL 12) north FL CD, and GOPers likewise in NH-02, but otherwise, it's barren territory for competitive races.

-- But LA-03 would be different. McCain's 61% win there means that just nine other Dems hold seats with a higher McCain %. Still, Dems aren't out of luck: five of those nine CDs are represented by conservative Dems who first won their seats in '08. And if Ascension Parish Sheriff Jeff Wiley (D) enters, he'd appear to fit this mold. Earlier this year, business-type Dems who were disgruntled over Melancon's early support for EFCA tried to talk Wiley into running against the incumbent, but were unsuccessful.

-- Conservative LA Dems fared poorly in '08, however. Despite what many believed to be an almost unstoppable candidacy, then-longtime Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche (D) was edged in an open LA-04 race, and then-Rep. Don Cazayoux (D) was trampled in Baton Rouge.

-- A Melancon SEN bid may mean good news for the DSCC, but it'd certainly be heartburn for the DCCC, and would give GOPers one of its best shots at its first open seat pickup since '04.