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Thursday, June 18, 2009The Hotline's Briefing on House Races

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Spotlight

Fits To A "Tea"

At first glance, recent polling offers little evidence that GOPers are poised for a strong mid-term. But look just beneath the surface, and you'll see that trouble may be brewing for Dems.

-- Numbers from the NBC News/WSJ and CBS/NYT polls show the GOP hitting all-time lows in public approval. On the other hand, Dems and Obama appear to be holding their strong ratings.

-- But there are warning signs for Dems. The deficit and gov't spending have shot up the list of top issues, and, at least according to the NBC poll, is the clear #2 priority for voters. To whom are voters looking to fix the problem? Clearly not Obama, as 60% of CBS' respondents say he doesn't have a plan to address the burgeoning deficit.

-- Still, right now, they're not blaming Obama or Dems. NBC's poll shows 41% of voters put the blame on George W. Bush, while only 7% blame GOPers. Just just 6% point a finger at Obama. But once we get deeper into health care reform and talk of $1T deficits, will voters still blame Bush?

-- What does all of this mean? While cong. Dems and Obama still enjoy high approval, there's danger on the horizon if they don't begin to address the growing deficit. It's clear from interviews with GOP cong. candidates that they plan to make this a huge part of their campaigns. Will Dems have an answer?

Top News
  • Cretul Intentions

    Even though a good crop of potential GOPers has already emerged against Rep. Grayson (D-FL 08), FL House Speaker Cretul (R) looks as though he may jump in.

  • You Don't Bring Me Flowers Anymore

    State Sen. Flowers (R) decides against MS-01 bid, leaving state Sen. Nunnelee (R) as the likely candidate. Will a Tupelo-based candidate solve the GOP's problem here?

  • Cover Story

    Pres. Obama singles out Rep. Cohen (D-TN 09) for his support of war supplemental. Wonder why that is?

  • Guess Who's Not Coming To Dinner?

    A smaller-than-expected $3M take at tonight's DCCC/DSCC dinner with Pres. Obama leaves some Dems grumbling.

Contents Thursday, June 18, 2009

Recent Editions
  • Monday, June 15, 2009
  • Thursday, June 11, 2009
  • Monday, June 8, 2009
  • Thursday, June 4, 2009
  • Monday, June 1, 2009

Today's Frontpage

    Special Elections

  • CALIFORNIA 10 (D/CONTRA COSTA COUNTY -- TAUSCHER): Cheaper By The Dozen
  • NEW YORK 23 (R/PLATTSBURGH -- MCHUGH): It's Not Coup, It's Me

    Open Seats

  • MICHIGAN 02 (R/MUSKEGON -- HOEKSTRA): Businessmen Like Bees To Honey
  • MISSOURI 07 (R/SPRINGFIELD -- BLUNT): Steel-ing The Open Seat?
  • OKLAHOMA 05 (R/OKLAHOMA CITY -- FALLIN): Thank A Vet

    Freshmen

  • ALABAMA 05 (D/HUNTSVILLE -- GRIFFITH): Parker's Markers
  • COLORADO 04 (D/GREELEY -- MARKEY): The Voice Of Generations
  • FLORIDA 08 (D/ORLANDO -- GRAYSON): Cretul Could Be Crucial
  • NEW MEXICO 01 (D/ALBUQUERQUE -- HEINRICH): An Early Start
  • OHIO 15 (D/COLUMBUS -- KILROY): OSU? More Like NO-SU
  • PENNSYLVANIA 03 (D/ERIE -- DAHLKEMPER): You Ain't Nothing But A Blue Dog

    Veterans to Watch

  • ALASKA AT LARGE (R -- YOUNG): The Coast's Clear...For Now
  • CALIFORNIA 44 (R/RIVERSIDE -- CALVERT): Hard Drive's Fired Up And He's Rarin' To Go
  • LOUISIANA 03 (D/HOUMA -- MELANCON): Should He Stay Or Should He Go?
  • MISSISSIPPI 01 (D/TUPELO -- CHILDERS): No More Flower Power
  • NEW YORK 14 (D/MANHATTAN -- MALONEY): Hot Child In The City
  • PENNSYLVANIA 06 (R/BRYN MAWR -- GERLACH): Whenever You're Ready, Jim. Really, Whenever.

    Other Updates

  • ARKANSAS 03 (R/FAYETTEVILLE -- BOOZMAN): Still Boozin' As Of Yet
  • PENNSYLVANIA 13 (D/PHILADELPHIA -- SCHWARTZ): At Least He's Got A Great Smile
  • TENNESSEE 09 (D/MEMPHIS -- COHEN): Presidential Praise
  • VIRGINIA 08 (D-ALEXANDRIA -- MORAN): La Guantanamera
  • WASHINGTON 06 (D/TACOMA -- DICKS): At This Point, It's The Norm

    National Briefing

  • BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: Seeking Approval
  • DCCC: This Morning After Pill Is Tough To Swallow For Some

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