Ten For '10?

The '10 expectations game has begun in earnest. Some are staying on message (A U.S. News story reports that Dems believe they can limit their losses to 10 seats), while some are not (Min. Whip Eric Cantor says the GOP can regain the majority in '10).

-- History suggests that Dems will lose seats this cycle, but nowhere near the number GOPers need to take the House back. Only once since the '50s has the party out-of-power gained more than 40 seats (the number needed by GOPers to re-take the majority) in a president's first mid-term election.

-- Or is it possible that Dems could actually gain seats with a popular pres., currently carrying a 65% approval, helming the party? That's only happened once, in '02, when George W. Bush's 65% approval rating gave GOPers a 3-seat gain.

-- That's an anomoly, though. In every other president's first midterm since Eisenhower, the party out-of-power has gained seats. Even John Kennedy, whose popularity sat at 74% on election day in '62, couldn't save Dems from losing 4 seats. In '54, GOPers lost 18 seats even though Eisenhower carried a 57% approval at the same time.

-- Still, Dems may not be too far off with their prediction. The six presidents who had approvals over 50% saw their parties lose an average of 9 seats in their first midterms. The two under 50% (Reagan and Clinton) saw their parties lose 26 and 52, respectively.