Treading Watertown

When John McHugh (R-NY 23) was plucked from his swing CD by Pres. Obama on 6/2, we had immediate flashbacks to those Jan. '09 days that gave us a special election in NY-20.

-- That's not just because these two relatively similar CDs happen to border each other, or share a few of the same potential candidates. It's that the parties reacted the same way to events in both CDs by declaring the seat nearly impossible to win. They have evidence to back that up: GOPers point to Obama's 52% here in '08. In addition, Eliot Spitzer and Hillary Clinton both took over 60% in '06. Dems point to a 46K-vote GOP registration edge, and the fact the CD has elected GOPers forever.

-- It's GOPers who have more to worry about here, since they haven't had much success holding these types of open, Dem-leaning seats recently. Still, with a deep bench of candidates in the wings, they could pull it off. Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) appears to be gaining momentum, but do GOPers really want to go to the Assemb. (one of the few entities in NY that rival Gov. David Paterson's (D) lows in popularity) for another special candidate? Another problem for Scozzafava: she voted for gay marriage recently in the Assemb. Will conservative GOPers rally around her?

-- Dems aren't without their problems either. If state Sen. Darrel Aubertine (D) passes (he may be reluctant to run because of Dems' slim margin in the state Senate) the cupboard is pretty bare. Still, NY-20 showed us that a candidate can come out of nowhere to win a compressed election.