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Thursday, May 28, 2009The Hotline's Briefing on House Races

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Spotlight

The Torture Chamber

You knew the NRCC wouldn't keep its new toy to itself. Indeed, it only took the NRCC 14 days to repackage Speaker Nancy Pelosi's (CA-08) CIA torture comments into a TV ad.

-- And Frank Kratovil's (D-MD 01) CD is not a bad place for them to start with the attack. The CD gave John McCain 59%, while giving Kratovil just a 2,852K-vote win. Pelosi's numbers are down since she made her controversial remarks (her fav/unfav rating went from a 16% net unfav before the remarks to a 26% net unfav after), and they're certainly down in Kratovil's CD.

-- But Pelosi's not a new boogeyman; The NRCC tied her to Zack Space (D-OH 18) and Tom Perriello (D-VA 05) in the cmte's first TV ads earlier this cycle. In these types of GOP-leaning CDs, Pelosi may be as unpopular as Newt Gingrich was just before he resigned in '98 (Then, he had a 24% net unfav rating).

-- The one name you won't find in any of these ads: Pres. Obama. That's not surprising, considering he's enjoying sky-high approval across the country. But McCain won these three CDs with an average of 54% in '08.

-- The GOP may make some hay beating up on Pelosi. But until it can knock around the big dog, it may not be able to break through against many of these battle-tested Dems in GOP-leaning CDs. Still, considering Pelosi's ratings, it's not a bad place to start.

Top News
  • Just Nod-ler Yes

    State Sen. Nodler (R) -- who led the MO-07 field in an Apr. poll -- formally entered the race this a.m.

  • It's His Funeral...

    Ex-NM GOP vice chair Barela (R) is considering a challenge to Rep. Heinrich (D-NM 01). If he runs, he'll join funeral home owner Daniels (R).

  • What Are You Giving Up For Lentz?

    As Rep. Sestak (D-PA 07) inches ever closer to a PA SEN bid, state Rep. Lentz (D) continues making moves toward a House bid.

  • The Sunshine Parachute?

    Dems are trying to convince state Sen. Min. Leader Lawson (D) to opt for the FL CFO race, instead of a bid against Rep. Boyd (D-FL 02).

Contents Thursday, May 28, 2009

Recent Editions
  • Tuesday, May 26, 2009
  • Thursday, May 21, 2009
  • Monday, May 18, 2009
  • Thursday, May 14, 2009
  • Monday, May 11, 2009

Today's Frontpage

    Special Elections

  • CALIFORNIA 10 (D/FAIRFIELD -- TAUSCHER): First, Do No Harmer

    Open Seats

  • GEORGIA 09 (R/DALTON -- DEAL): A Zell-ous Candidate
  • KANSAS 04 (D/WICHITA -- TIAHRT): Mike Knows Jack
  • MISSOURI 07 (R/SPRINGFIELD -- BLUNT): Over The Hill And Through The Woods, To Granny's Banquet House We Go

    Freshmen

  • MARYLAND 01 (D/SALISBURY -- KRATOVIL): Digging A (Peter) Graves For Kratovil
  • NEW MEXICO 01 (D/ALBUQUERQUE -- HEINRICH): The Ex Factor
  • NEW MEXICO 03 (D/SANTA FE -- LUJAN): Skip To My Lujan

    Veterans to Watch

  • FLORIDA 02 (D/TALLAHASSEE -- BOYD): They Want To Make You Chief (Financial Officer)
  • FLORIDA 22 (D/FT. LAUDERDALE -- KLEIN): Re-Kleining At The Congressional Table
  • PENNSYLVANIA 07 (D/UPPER DARBY -- SESTAK): Say It Ain't So, Or Is So, Joe!
  • PENNSYLVANIA 12 (D/MURTHA -- JOHNSTOWN): Parsley Sage Rose-Murtha And Thyme

    Other Updates

  • NEW YORK 09 (D/BROOKLYN -- WEINER): Wants To Spend More Time With Family
  • WASHINGTON 09 (D/TACOMA -- SMITH): Pierces Of Me

    National Briefing

  • BATTLE FOR THE HOUSE: Speaker Now Or Forever Hold Your Peace

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