Leave It To Shreve

This weekend's LA-04 general election will feel like deja vu, regardless of how you choose to view it.

-- For Dems, they look to their two special-election victories in the South for guidance. They hope Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche (D) can win this heavily GOP seat (John McCain took 60+% there) by touting his socially conservative positions and pointing out that physician John Fleming (R) is out of his party's mainstream. Dems point to Fleming's support of a 23% nat'l sales tax and privatizing Social Security. Hey, it worked in MS-01 and LA-06, why not here?

-- But GOPers can point to the 12/2 GA SEN runoff. In that contest, Pres-elect Obama recorded a radio ad and a robo call for Jim Martin (D) (he did the same for Carmouche). But even though Obama drew black voters to the polls 11/4, his runoff support offered little support and Martin was crushed. Could Carmouche suffer the same fate? Early voting numbers suggest it may. African Americans made up just 19% of early voters, compared to the 31% of the electorate they comprise. Any fall-off in this vote for Carmouche may be deadly.

-- This race could go either way, but GOPers need a win to argue that they've turned the page on a two messy cycles. For Dems, a win will show they can prevail without Obama on the ballot. Something they'll need to do in '10.