Thanks, But No Thanks

As we head off into the Thanksgiving Day holiday, both parties have reasons to be thankful. But each also has reasons to be leery heading into the '10 cycle.

-- Dems will be grateful for their 21-24 seat pickup in '08, but that expanded Dem majority must be concerned with ethics behavior that will likely be front page news in '09. New revelations against Ways & Means Chair Charlie Rangel (D-NY 15) and Bill Jefferson's (D-LA 02) trial will give GOPers a chance to define the new Cong. as corrupt in a way that Dems were successful with GOPers in '06. GOPers tried and failed with this message in '08. But with Dems holding all the levers of power, that message may resonate better in '10.

-- And as GOPers sit down to turkey dinners this week, they're thankful that a POTUS' first mid-term election usually offers a bounty of seats to the out party. But while Bill Clinton's '93 mistakes gave GOPers their '94 Revolution, Dems didn't realize similar gains in '02, as GOPers actually picked up six seats. Sure, 9/11 gave GOPers a bump in '02. But will the sagging economy afford Dems the same break in '10? It happened in '34, as Dems picked up nine more seats after Pres. Roosevelt's (D) Dem landslide in '32.