Something Old, Something New

You know a race is close when both camps release polls showing their guy ahead. Such is the case today in LA-04. And considering that the nat'l cmtes have already dumped more than $700K into the contest, their messages may be the most powerful between now and 12/6.

-- In its newest TV ad, the DCCC has chosen to attack physician John Fleming (R) (for the second time) for his support of a 23% nat'l sales tax. But despite its repetitiveness, attacks on the "fair tax" appear to be effective. Dems in conservative CDs (like ID-01, VA-02, PA-10 and MO-09) used the issue to counter "tax-and-spend liberal" labels being hurled at them by GOPers. Only in MO-09 was it not ultimately successful. Polling by Carmouche's camp shows this message appears to be taking hold.

-- But before we crown a winner, Fleming has released his own poll showing him up, by 1 point That result would suggest the NRCC's TV ad against Caddo Parish DA Paul Carmouche (D) appears to be working. It accuses Carmouche of bungling a case against a felon and releasing him, only to see him commit more crimes. But this represents a bit of a shift for the cmte. In the fall, it relied heavily on the "tax-and-spend" label to attack Dems. We'll see if the personal approach will be more effective than the generic tax-centered ads they tried for much of the fall.