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Friday, Nov. 7, 2008The Hotline's Briefing on House Races

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Spotlight

Smooth Criminal

Many times in House races, independents garner more headlines than votes. But this cycle, several made an impact.

-- And none may be bigger than in LA-06. Don Cazayoux (D) would've had a hard enough time holding onto this GOP-leaning CD without African-American state Rep. Michael Jackson (I). But on 11/4, Jackson stole 12% of the vote, most of which was likely African-American votes siphoned from Cazayoux. That was more than enough to make up for Cazayoux's 8% loss to Rep-elect Bill Cassidy (R).

-- Several others also made a difference. In MN-06, little-known businessman Bob Anderson (IP) took 10%, splintering the anti-Michele Bachmann (R) vote and enabling her to win with 46%. And in OH-15, conservative pro-life activist Don Elkhart (I) took 12K votes. If those votes went to moderate state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), who is clinging to a 390-vote lead over '06 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy (D), he wouldn't be worried about provisional ballots in Franklin Co. right now.

-- Of course, other indies struck out. Most notably, Bridgewater Councilor/ex-GOPer Michael Hsing (I) failed to keep state Sen. Leonard Lance (R) from taking NJ-07. But for the most part, third-party candidates played a big role 11/4 in aiding both major parties.

Top News
  • 21 Jump Street

    Dems now hold expanding and increasingly comfortable leads in two pickup opportunities in MD-01 and VA-05. Wins in both would give them a 21-seat gain.

  • Not So Even Steven

    State Sen. Stivers (R) increases his lead to 390 votes over '06 nominee Kilroy (D). Will it be enough to hold off her expected advantage in provisional ballots?

  • Just Shays No

    Defeated Rep. Shays (R-CT 04) rules out a repeat bid in '10.

Contents Friday, Nov. 7, 2008

Recent Editions
  • Thursday, Nov. 6, 2008
  • Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2008
  • Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008
  • Monday, Nov. 3, 2008
  • Friday, Oct. 31, 2008

Today's Frontpage

    Still In Play

  • STILL NOT CALLED: Status Quo
  • LOUISIANA 02 (D/NEW ORLEANS -- JEFFERSON): King Street Blues
  • MARYLAND 01 (R/SALISBURY -- GILCHREST): Kratovil's To Lose?
  • OHIO 15 (R/COLUMBUS -- PRYCE): Landslide Steve
  • VIRGINIA 05 (R/CHARLOTTESVILLE -- GOODE): Hey, Look What I Found

    Campaign 2008

  • CALIFORNIA 44 (R/RIVERSIDE -- CALVERT): Victory At Last?!
  • NEBRASKA 02 (R/OMAHA -- TERRY): Postcards From The Edge
  • VIRGINIA 02 (R/VIRGINIA BEACH -- DRAKE): Ending All Doubt

    Special Elections

  • ILLINOIS 05 (D/CHICAGO -- EMANUEL): That's The Chicago Way

    Campaigns of 2010

  • CONNECTICUT 04 (R/STAMFORD -- SHAYS): No Regrets, But He Doesn't Want To Do It Again
  • MICHIGAN 11 (R/LIVONIA -- MCCOTTER): McCott In The Cross Fire
  • OHIO 02 (R/BATAVIA -- SCHMIDT): Up The Krik Without A Paddle?

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