Swing And A Near Miss

We wrote 11/5 that, given Pres.-elect Obama's sweeping victory, House Dems should've made much bigger gains. But there were places where Obama-influenced turnout gave GOPers a big scare.

-- In CA-44, Rep. Ken Calvert (R) held on by shockingly close 51-49% score. Calvert was on nobody's watchlist, yet his opponent (who raised just $155K), came close because of Obama's win in usually-GOP Riverside Co. Corono School Bd. Pres. Bill Hedrick (D) actually overperformed Obama's numbers there.

-- And despite facing a second-tier challenger, Rep. Jim Gerlach (R-PA 06) again fought to stay alive in the Philly suburbs. The perennial target was supposed to have an easy ride this year, but ret. businessman Bob Roggio (D) still took 48% in part because Obama carried the three counties that make up the CD by a 16-pt margin. Don't look for Gerlach to get off so easy in '10.

-- And finally, Joe Knollenberg (R-MI 09) blamed his loss partly on John McCain's decision to pull out of MI. Knollenberg represents the bellwether of Oakland Co., which went 57-42% for Obama. But Thad McCotter (R-MI 11), who also represents part of Oakland Co., also felt a bit of the wave. He took just 51%, and for the second cycle in a row received less than 55%. Will Dems recruit a decent candidate here in '10?