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Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2008National Journal's Daily Briefing on Politics

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Spotlight

Signed, Sealed, Delivered

His victory was historic. Many of Obama's most fervent supporters weren't alive the last time a Dem won the WH by such a big margin, or carried some of these states. But was this a transformational election? Have the red/blue lines been permanently altered or just shuffled? We'll be analyzing these issues and more in the days to come, but here's our early read on the election of the century:

-- The Bradley Effect? Not So Much: Obama outperformed Kerry - albeit narrowly - among white voters. Oh, and as for those PUMAs and "bitter" "cling-ons" - Obama won over HRC supporters in OH, PA and NH (and carried Scranton big-time, BTW). Meanwhile, he outperformed Kerry and Gore in rural areas, while splitting the suburban vote w/McCain.

-- Blue and Red America: Take a look at the big states like PA, OH and VA, and you'll see a familiar pattern. Blue blotches around urban areas and big swaths of red across rural ones. Obama's wins in these states were thanks to movement on the margins - not on huge shifts.

-- Rock The Vote - Or Not: Reports of long lines and big crowds at polling places may have overstated the "surge" in turnout. With 95% of precincts reporting, just over 117M had voted. It may ultimately reach '04's 122M mark, but that's a far cry from projections of 130-140M.

Quote of the Day

"Change has come to America."

— Barack Obama, mult., 11/4.

Top News
  • Wait, Wait, Don't Tell Me

    You know it's a "change" election when we're waiting on IN, NC and MO and not FL and OH; most likely EC outcome: Obama 364, McCain 174. (#4)

  • As Alaska Turns

    Looks like Stevens survives. Will there be a special election before or after the appeal? Should we get the Palin '09 stickers ready? (#11)

  • Moderately Speaking

    Two GOP moderates are hanging on. Coleman's up by 762 votes, Smith's up by 10K. But lots of Dem counties still out. (#13) (#14)

  • No Exit

    NEP shows Obama got 17% of Bush '04 voters; Meanwhile there's no bump in the %age of Af-Am, young, and first-time voters. (#6)

  • Poll Dancing

    Almost every major pollster got at least one state right; FD/NJ and ARG got the closest in four. (#17)

 

Contents Wednesday, Nov. 5, 2008

Recent Editions
  • Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008
  • Monday, Nov. 3, 2008
  • Friday, Oct. 31, 2008
  • Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008
  • Wednesday, Oct. 29, 2008

Today's Frontpage

    Results

  • THE TALLY: Oh-Bam!
  • PRESIDENTIAL: Still Too Close To Call In MO, NC
  • CALL TIMES: If You're Lost, You Can Look, And You Will Find Me
  • INDECISION '08: For Whom The Bellwether Tolls
  • HOW'S IT VIEWING?: Running Down A Dream
  • NATIONAL EXITS: I'm Down With NEP
  • STATE EXITS: Exits Over Easy
  • THE LANDSCAPE: A Not Unexpected Thumping
  • THE SENATE: Did GOPers Dodge A Bullet?
  • SENATE SENIORITY: Mark May Be Younger Than Tom, But He's More Senior
  • ALASKA SENATE: You Just Keep Me Hangin' On
  • GEORGIA SENATE: Shouldn't Early Votes Be Counted Early?
  • MINNESOTA SENATE: Who's Laughing Now, Funny Man?
  • OREGON SENATE: Mr. Merkley Goes To Washington?
  • GOVERNORS: GOP Drought Continues In DE, NC... And WA?
  • WASHINGTON GOVERNOR: Did She Or Didn't She?

    Election Scorecards

  • ELECTORAL COLLEGE: A Lucky Man Who Made The Grade
  • POPULAR VOTE: Crowded At The Top
  • STATE LEGISLATURES: Flippin' Out
  • BALLOT INITIATIVES: Pot Smokers Welcome, Most Others Have To Wait
  • REMATCHES: Vengeance Is Mine (For A Few Folks, Anyway)
  • EX-FILES: Unless You Were An Ex-Gov, You Lost
  • LEGACIES: A Parliament Of Udalls
  • MINORITIES: Minority Report
  • WOMEN: This One's For The Ladies
  • BAILOUT VOTE: Will They Need Their Own Bailout?
  • CONSULTANT SCORECARD: GOP Barack'd
  • BUSH: The Devil Went Down To George
  • CHENEY: Miami Vice
  • CLINTON: I'd Like To Use My 50-50
  • HUCKABEE: You've Selected ... Agent Zero?
  • GIULIANI: April Showers Brings Mayor Flowers
  • GORE: The Rest Is Still Unwritten
  • LAURA BUSH: Lady In Red
  • ROMNEY: The Mitt Hits The Fan

    Election Scorecards -- Interest Groups

  • CLUB FOR GROWTH: Getting Ready To Swing
  • DEFENDERS OF WILDLIFE: And The Next Richard Pombo Is...Several, Actually
  • EMILY'S LIST: North Carolina Leads The Way
  • EMPLOYEE FREEDOM ACTION COMMITTEE: Prepping For Card Check
  • FREEDOM'S WATCH: Freedom Is Certainly Not Free
  • LEAGUE OF CONSERVATION VOTERS: A League Of Their Own
  • MAJORITY ACTION: Expanding The Majority
  • NATIONAL FEDERATION OF INDEPENDENT BUSINESS: Joe The Plumber Spreads The Wealth
  • NATIONAL RIFLE ASSOCIATION: An Army Unto Themselves
  • NATIONAL RIGHT TO LIFE: To Life, To Life, L'Chaim
  • NARAL: Choose Us!
  • PATRIOT MAJORITY: A Pretty Good Batting Average
  • REALTORS: Take It To The House
  • SEIU: A Purple Wave
  • U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: Made Of Money
  • VETS FOR FREEDOM: No White Flags Here

    National Briefing

  • BLOGOMETER: The Age Of Obama

    White House 2012

  • THE NEXT PURPLE STATES: Meet The New '12 Battlegrounds

    People

  • FROM THE MOUTH OF MATTHEWS: Pundits Say The Darndest Things
  • NEWS BAZAAR: The Weird, The Wondrous, The Totally Random

    Media Monitor

  • MEDIA MONITOR: This Morning
??? Overlooked ???

A Udall's House (Er, Senate)

Sens.-elect Tom Udall (D-NM) and Mark Udall (D-CO) will be ranked the most senior of the incoming freshmen Senate class, because of their 5 House terms apiece. But because CO has a greater population than NM, Mark Udall will be considered the more senior of the two.

Read More


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