Spotlight
Twist Or Treat?
In an election where every week brought twists and turns, summing up the top turning points is a daunting task. But it's just the kind thing The Hotline loves to tackle. Here's our take on the events that shaped '08:
-- The Race Factor That Wasn't ... Or Was It?: Obama's "bitter" remarks in SF and his race speech in Philly. B. Clinton's "fairy tale" and J. Jackson reference. McCain's criticism of the NC GOP's Wright ad, which helped make race a non-issue.
-- The Economy, Stupid: From McCain's 12/07 admission that "economics is not something I've understood as well as I should," to his defense of strong "fundamentals" to P. Gramm's "whiners", it was clear that if the economy drove this election, McCain would be in trouble.
-- -Before There Were 18M Cracks: There was HRC's flub on drivers' licenses at Drexel. The first crack in what was supposed to be her "inevitability" shield.
-- Risky Business Paid Off: Obama's decision to shun public financing is one of the most obvious, but the most important. McCain could afford a 3-state strategy, but not a 19-state one.
-- And finally, the passing of Tim Russert. We miss him. Election Night won't be the same.
Quote of the Day
"In my heart of hearts I believe race is less of a factor today than it was at that time."
— Ex-Harvey Gantt '90 camp mgr/Rep. Mel Watt on the race factor in NC in '08, Media General, 10/31.
Top News
Scare Tactics
Obama up w/ads in ND, GA and AZ; Plouffe says big Dem early vote means McCain needs huge 11/4 turnout to win. (#3)
Haunted Chalet
Stevens says that until his appeal is heard, he hasn't "been convicted yet." But if he loses, he'll "do what's right for AK." Are AK voters willing to wait? (#64)
Not Masking His Feelings
Barkley up w/only ad in MN SEN saying he doesn't need "two guys from NY to tell me why the middle class is angry;" Also, two new polls show Franken ahead. (#78) (#77)
Carving It Up
Two new KY SEN polls show tightening race w/McConnell ahead but under 50%; Latest GA poll shows Chambliss pulling away from Martin. (#71) (#67)
I Put A Spell On You
Hagan files defamation suit against Dole for "Godless" ad and runs spot chastising Dole for "bearing false witness against fellow Christians". (#82)
Contents Friday, Oct. 31, 2008
Today's Frontpage
- GENERAL ELECTION: Frightening Numbers
- MCCAIN: Air Supply
- OBAMA: I See Something In My Rearview Mirror
- PALIN: Bring. Your. Own. Guns. And. Bibles.
- BIDEN: Every Camp Needs A Motivational Speaker
- EARLY VOTING: Early Vote Snapshot
- THIRD PARTY DEBATE: Hey, Pick On Someone Your Own Size
- DIAGEO/HOTLINE TRACKING: Countdown To Kickoff
- ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST TRACKING: Has He LOST?
- DAILY KOS TRACKING: And If You Don't Know, Now You Know
- IBD/TIPP TRACKING: And Business Executives
- GALLUP TRACKING: Galluping To The Middle
- GWU BATTLEGROUND TRACKING: War Is Heck
- REUTERS/C-SPAN/ZOGBY TRACKING: Steady As He Goes
- CBS NEWS/NEW YORK TIMES: Oooh! It's That Creepy Eye
- FOX NEWS/OPINION DYNAMICS: Feel Like Sayin' Foxy
- 2008 SCHEDULES: You Forgot The First Rule In A Crisis Situation
White House 2008
- BATTLE FOR THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE: Passenger 57
- COLORADO POLL (9 EVS): You're In Good Hands
- COLORADO (9 EVS): Gotta Have Faith
- FLORIDA POLL (27 EVS): The Miami Dauphin
- FLORIDA (27 EVS): It's A Hard Knock Life
- INDIANA (11 EVS): Southern Indiana Pacers
- IOWA POLL (7 EVS): Making Their National Dubuque
- IOWA (7 EVS): A Return On His Investment
- MICHIGAN POLL (17 EVS): Forgotten Battleground?
- MICHIGAN (17 EVS): Keep Them On
- MISSOURI (11 EVS): Big MO
- MONTANA (3 EVS): Power Play
- NEVADA (5 EVS): Half-Over
- NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL (4 EVS): Nom De Plumber
- NORTH CAROLINA POLL (15 EVS): In Vino Civitas
- NORTH CAROLINA (15 EVS): Held Over By Popular Demand
- NORTH DAKOTA (3 EVS): Bismarked As A Battleground
- OHIO POLL (20 EVS): Get On The Columbus
- OHIO (20 EVS): Get On The Bus
- PENNSYLVANIA POLL (21 EVS): The Perfect Weekend Off
- PENNSYLVANIA (21 EVS): Parading Down Broad Street
- VIRGINIA POLL (13 EVS): It's An Ashburn/Butler Showdown
- VIRGINIA (13 EVS): Loudoun Clear
- WISCONSIN (10 EVS): Promise Keeper
- WEST VIRGINIA (5 EVS): Countryside First
White House 2008 -- The Battleground States
- ALASKA (3 EVS): The Palin Pack
- ARIZONA (10 EVS): Home Sweet Home?
- CALIFORNIA (55 EVS): No Norwalk In The Park
- DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA (3 EVS): Celebrate And Discover Long Lines
- IDAHO POLL (4 EVS): They Call Me Tater Salad
- ILLINOIS (21 EVS): Headphones Not Included
- LOUISIANA POLL (9 EVS): Shall Not Parish
- LOUISIANA (9 EVS): This Could Be Bigger Than Mardi Gras
- MAINE (4 EVS): The Maine Event
- NEBRASKA (5 EVS): Gale Warning For Omaha
- NEW JERSEY POLL (15 EVS): A Shore Thing
- NEW JERSEY (15 EVS): Absentees Present
- NEW YORK (31 EVS): Mayor Mike Is Outraged
- OKLAHOMA (7 EVS): I Can't Say No
- OREGON (7 EVS): A Case Of The Blues
- SOUTH CAROLINA POLL (8 EVS): The Other Boleyn State
- TENNESSEE (11 EVS): Early Bird Special
- TEXAS (34 EVS): Come And Take It
- WYOMING (3 EVS): As Goes Wyoming...
White House 2008 -- Other State Updates
- BLOGOMETER: McCain The Mudslinger?
National Briefing
- SENATE SCOREBOARD: Teetering On The Brink
- ALASKA: Heating Up In The Coldest State
- COLORADO POLL: If I Spoke Prose, Udall Find Out
- COLORADO: The 16th Time's The Charm
- GEORGIA POLL: Martin's Short
- IDAHO POLL: Fresh Off The Farm
- IOWA POLL: Reed Between The Lines
- KENTUCKY POLL: Lucky Louisville
- KENTUCKY: We're The Second Most Important
- LOUISIANA POLL: One Point Wonder
- LOUISIANA: Vote For More Of The Same
- MAINE: Getting Close To The Maine Event
- MICHIGAN POLL: Why Today Do We Eat
- MISSISSIPPI: How Often Are Senate Ads Replayed In Other States?
- MINNESOTA POLL: Deviation For The Norm?
- MINNESOTA: Final Ad-ditions
- NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL: The Sununu Also Rises
- NEW HAMPSHIRE: Gritty Granite State
- NORTH CAROLINA POLL: Yeah...About That...
- NORTH CAROLINA: Would You Believe...?
- VIRGINIA POLL: PAC Man
Senate 2008
- GOVERNOR SCOREBOARD: Will Dems Keep All They Have?
- DELAWARE: Treasurer's Chest
- INDIANA POLL: I'm Eighteen
- INDIANA: Lilly Leaves Kisses On Your Collar
- MISSOURI: Remember To Visit Nixon's House
- NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL: Tell Us How You Really Feel
- NORTH CAROLINA POLL: We'll Get Back To You
- NORTH CAROLINA: When I Dip You Dip We Dip
- WASHINGTON: (Out-Of-State) PAC Girl?
- VERMONT: Reefer Madness
Governor 2008
- THE FLY-BY: Barkley The Charmer, Matthews The Dodger And Tancredo The Governor
- IDAHO POLL: Right. Sensual. That's What I Meant.
- MICHIGAN POLL: Met This Lady In Michigan
- PENNSYLVANIA POLL: Rendell Hoek
- VIRGINIA POLL: McAuliffe's Next Life?
In The States
- NATIONAL JOURNAL: For What It's Worth
Poll Update
- STRAUSS: DC's Shadow Senator Busted For DUI
- BUSH: Really Needs A "Thanks, You Shouldn't Have" T-Shirt
- GIBBONS: The Great Pumpkin Could Always Show Up
- CLINTON: Still Creating Jobs
- VITTER: Too Late To Change Your Mind
- BARON: Dem Fundraiser Dies At Age 61
- PRESS PASS: Obama's Cover-Boy Chances Perilously Drop
- POLICE LOG: But Is She Still Able To Vote?
- NEWS BAZAAR: Looking For A Local Angle?
People
- MEDIA MONITOR: This Morning
Media Monitor
??? Overlooked ???
One Race We Can Call Today
The dearth of polling in certain contests (OR SEN, MS SEN, NM WH). Meanwhile, NH GOV has been polled by at least 6 firms over the past 4 weeks, with John Lynch's lead anywhere from 26 to 52 points.
