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Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008National Journal's Daily Briefing on Politics
Spotlight
Let Them Eat Cake
The days of discomfort and self-doubt are upon us. Are we missing something? Is the polling wrong? Can we trust the early-vote data? We don't have a crystal ball, but here's what we can see from our vantage point:
--The predicted tightening is happening. Obama's lead in the Diageo/Hotline tracking was 8 pts last weekend weekend, dropped to 7 pts 10/29 and is 6 pts today. McCain's doing better among men, while Obama has lost ground among indies. Yet, the gender gap still benefits Obama (he leads among women by 17 pts) and Obama's ahead among indies by 6 pts.
-- More important, our analysis of the undecided voters turned up no hidden "Bradley Effect" voters. In fact, the number crunchers at Pollster.com predict that these voters will ultimately split 54% for Obama and 46% McCain.
-- To be sure, Obama's not a slam dunk in many battleground states now leaning his way. NC and OH are still 50-50. And many Dems still view FL as the Great White Whale. But Obama continues to poll well in CO and VA, so those other states could just be the icing, not the batter.
Quote of the Day
"He's a national leader, Clyburn. I'm thinking of his constituents, and he doesn't have the slightest clue what he's talking about."
— House Ways & Means Chair Charlie Rangel, on Maj. Whip Jim Clyburn's pragmatic approach to governance, Wall Street Journal, 10/30.
Top News
Amber Airwaves Of Grain
Nielsen says more people watched the debates than the Obamercial, but he did get more viewers than Perot. (#3)
It's A Gusher
McCain seizes on Exxon-Mobil's 3rd Q profits to hit Obama for backing tax breaks for oil. Is McCain the populist, again? Or is Obama still the "redistributor"? (#2)
Don't Stop Thinking 'Bout Tomorrow
Palin holds nat'l security talk in Erie, her 2nd policy event in two days. But Eskew & Co. say she's not focused on '12. (#4)
Hey Big Spenders
NH's Sununu is top recipient of NRSC IEs, while the DSCC has spent $10M for Merkley. (#65)
Betting On Buckley?
Leaked memo has Libertarian drawing enough to force a GA SEN runoff. Meanwhile, early data shows blacks making up 35% of GA's vote. (#54) (#6)
Contents Thursday, Oct. 30, 2008
Today's Frontpage
- GENERAL ELECTION: Donkey Kong
- MCCAIN: The Exxon Files
- OBAMA: It's Showtime In America
- PALIN: Read All About It: Liberal Media Hides Dem's Terrorist Ties
- BIDEN: Under The Radar Tour Continues
- EARLY VOTING: Early Vote Snapshot
- THIRD PARTY DEBATE: One More For The Road
- DIAGEO/HOTLINE TRACKING: Made Of Ticky Tracky
- ABC NEWS/WASHINGTON POST TRACKING: What Will 30 Days Of The Post Get Me?
- DAILY KOS TRACKING: Kos Knows Baseball
- GALLUP TRACKING: Just Try Not To Mention The Great Pumpkin
- IBD/TIPP TRACKING: There's No Business Like...
- REUTERS/C-SPAN/ZOGBY TRACKING: You Better, You Bet
- GWU BATTLEGROUND: Of Course You Know This Means War
- 2008 SCHEDULES: Keep On Rockin' In The Free World
White House 2008
- COLORADO POLL (9 EVS): A Pretty Steep Slope
- COLORADO (9 EVS): Let's Make A Deal
- FLORIDA POLL (27 EVS): Looking For A Little Orlando Magic
- FLORIDA (27 EVS): Eyes On The Prize
- GEORGIA POLL (15 EVS): Depends On Your Audience
- GEORGIA (15 EVS): Back In Business
- INDIANA POLL (11 EVS): We Missed Unionville
- INDIANA (11 EVS): Indy Racing Suit Through The Courts
- IOWA (7 EVS): C'mon Guys, Grandmas Are Off Limits
- MINNESOTA POLL (10 EVS): And Twins...
- MINNESOTA (10 EVS): Some Men Scare Easily
- MISSOURI POLL (11 EVS): S.
- MISSOURI (11 EVS): Ready As They Will Ever Be
- MONTANA (3 EVS): Turnout Will Be Big-Sky-High
- NEVADA POLL (5 EVS): Strange Medicine On The Desert
- NEVADA (5 EVS): The Norma Rae Factor
- NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL (4 EVS): The Mavs And The Mav Nots
- NEW HAMPSHIRE (4 EVS): Come One, Come All
- NEW MEXICO (5 EVS): Land Of Enchantment, Early Voting
- NORTH CAROLINA POLL (15 EVS): Putting The Squeeze On
- OHIO POLL (20 EVS): Giving Aspirin Another Headache
- OHIO (20 EVS): No Justice (Litigation)
- PENNSYLVANIA POLL (21 EVS): Opinions Vary?
- PENNSYLVANIA (21 EVS): Fightin' Phils
- VIRGINIA POLL (13 EVS): The Newist South
- VIRGINIA (13 EVS): Descending On The Old Dominion
- WISCONSIN POLL (10 EVS): Wiscful Thinking
White House 2008 -- The Battleground States
- CONSULTANT SCORECARD: Let's Get Ready To Rumble...
- CONSULTANT CANDIDS: Funny Business
- BLOGOMETER: Sex, Lies, And Videotape
National Briefing
- SENATE SCOREBOARD: Maybe Not A GOP Bloodbath, More Like A Spongebath
- BATTLE FOR THE SENATE: We Need Reinforcements!
- ALASKA: If I Go There Will Be Trouble, And If I Stay There Will Be Double
- COLORADO: Oooooh, Snap!
- GEORGIA: What Does It Mean Now?
- KENTUCKY: Forward March
- MAINE: Winning On Message? Unheard of!
- MINNESOTA: Extra, Extra, Read All About It
- MISSISSIPPI: Interesting Approach
- NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL: John Six Points
- NEW HAMPSHIRE: Party Poopers
- NEW JERSEY POLL: Zimmon Tov!
- NEW JERSEY: Why They Haven't Met Until Now
- NORTH CAROLINA POLL: Dole's Not Done
- NORTH CAROLINA: Godspell
- OREGON: You Can't Trust Anyone These Days
- RHODE ISLAND: More Like Apollo Creed Against Ivan Drago
- TENNESSEE: More Of A Victory Lap Than A Campaign
- TEXAS POLL: Schick Chaser FX
- TEXAS: Time To Play Dress Up!
Senate 2008
- INDIANA POLL: The Fourteen Points
- MISSOURI: Name Your Price
- MONTANA: Big Plan Country
- NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL: I've Got To Call My Bookie
- UTAH POLL: Dude, You're Getting Reelected
- UTAH: Huntsman For A Red November
- VERMONT: Governor's Travels
- WASHINGTON: Dino's Deposition Day
- WEST VIRGINIA: Weeks Has Issues
Governor 2008
- GALLUP: And We Have A Winner
Poll Update
- WURZELBACHER: Coming Soon To Your Local Clearance Aisle
- MCCOTTER: Hug Me, I'm Irish Catholic
- EDWARDS: Ring In The Rumors
- PIRRO: All Wallow's Eve
- KILPATRICK: Still Has Allies
- PRESS PASS: You've Got The Wrong Sun-News
- POLICE LOG: Keep Stuffing The Ballot Box
- NEWS BAZAAR: Shock To The System
People
- MEDIA MONITOR: This Morning
Media Monitor
??? Overlooked ???
On The Edge Of The Grand Canyon
RCP's Wilson notes the RNC may be running robocalls in AZ, but it could be worse: In each of Franklin Roosevelt's four elections, he beat the GOP nominee in his home state. It wouldn't be fair to count Thomas Dewey or Wendell Willkie, both of whom shared NY with Roosevelt, so that makes KS Gov. Alf Landon the last GOP nominee to lose his home state, in '36. Of course, the last Dem to lose his home state would be Al Gore, in '00.